2025 U.S. Open: Expert Picks and Betting Tips

The third major championship of the 2025 golf season, the U.S. Open, is scheduled to commence this Thursday and run through Sunday at the demanding Oakmont Country Club.

As anticipation builds, we asked our panel of golf experts who they believe will emerge victorious. Additionally, our betting analysts share their insights on where the most promising value lies for wagering. Below, we break down the leading contenders and provide further analysis ahead of the 2025 U.S. Open.

Expert Winner Predictions

Matt Barrie: My pick is Jon Rahm. While Scottie Scheffler is the obvious choice, Rahm appears to be regaining his top form in major championships. His recent finishes, including 14th at the Masters and 8th at the PGA Championship, indicate he is returning to the level that saw him ranked as the world`s best player before joining LIV Golf.

Tory Barron: I`m going with Scottie Scheffler. Oakmont is known as a formidable challenge, ready to test every golfer. Therefore, it`s logical that the champion must be an equally formidable player. Scheffler fits this description perfectly, having won three of his last four starts by a dominant margin of 17 strokes combined. A player like Scheffler, in such hot form, is the most daunting opponent any course could face.

Michael Collins: Scheffler is my pick. To use a Marvel analogy, he possesses the equivalent of the Infinity Gauntlet and all the Infinity Stones. Scottie is simply inevitable. On a course like Oakmont, set up by the USGA, perhaps only about eight players realistically have a chance to win, and Scottie is one of them – inevitable.

Jeff Darlington: Scheffler. We`ve reached a point with Scheffler reminiscent of Tiger Woods` era, where picking him is almost a cliché, but his current dominance makes it hard to look elsewhere. Despite Bryson DeChambeau`s game seemingly being well-suited for Oakmont, Scheffler`s level of play and consistency right now are just too exceptional.

Michael Eaves: Sepp Straka. The current setup at Oakmont appears to favor a classic, brutally tough U.S. Open style, placing immense importance on hitting fairways and greens accurately. This season, Straka has demonstrated he is among the tour`s best in these crucial areas. He is accurate and confident, having already secured two wins this year. Furthermore, five of the last six U.S. Open champions were first-time major winners, a trend Straka could continue.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Scheffler. If it were Scottie against the entire field, I might favor the field, but that`s not the nature of this exercise. While one part of me thinks something this predictable rarely happens in golf and wants to choose differently, the part of me that watches the sport is picking Scottie.

Andy North: Scheffler. He has won three of his last four events. At Oakmont, excelling with iron play is crucial, and nobody is performing better with their irons than Scottie right now.

Mark Schlabach: Scheffler. Yes, I know this isn`t a bold prediction, but if the task is to name the player most likely to hoist the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday, it`s difficult to choose anyone else. I picked Rory McIlroy for the PGA Championship based on his history at Quail Hollow, but Scheffler once again proved he is the man to beat. The world No. 1 is playing incredibly well, leading the PGA Tour in nearly every strokes-gained category from tee to green. He`s even ranked 25th in strokes gained: putting, which was previously considered his weakness. If he`s near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday, Scottie is unmatched in his ability to close out tournaments decisively.

Marty Smith: Scheffler. Oakmont is widely considered one of the toughest golf courses globally, demanding exceptional precision and accuracy. Scottie is playing with remarkable freedom and precision currently, and I anticipate that will continue at Oakmont.

Curtis Strange: Scheffler. As the world No. 1, with wins in three of his last four starts, facing one of the most strategically challenging courses in the world – Oakmont – he is the clear choice.

Paolo Uggetti: Jon Rahm. I was very impressed by Rahm`s performance at the PGA Championship. It wasn`t just that he put himself back into contention for a major for the first time since the 2023 Masters, but his game and competitive drive seemed perfectly aligned, producing compelling golf. His playing style should be well-suited for Oakmont, and I believe he has a strong chance of being one of the few players capable of challenging Scheffler this week.

Scott Van Pelt: Rahm. Because someone needs to pick a different player than Scottie.

Betting Roundtable Analysis

Who is your pick to win?

David Gordon, ESPN Research: Rory McIlroy (+1200). McIlroy was a co-favorite at +450 just last month at the PGA Championship. Now his odds are significantly longer, partly due to some equipment issues. I trust Rory to resolve these issues and return to the form that saw him finish runner-up in the last two U.S. Opens at this tournament.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Collin Morikawa (+2200). Morikawa possesses the emotional composure and analytical approach well-suited for Oakmont. He started the year strong with two runner-up finishes early on but has cooled off since March with only one Top-10. However, his game is built for this course – he ranks fourth in accuracy and fifth in approach shots. If he remains calm and plays his disciplined game, Morikawa could quietly find himself in contention on Sunday, and it wouldn`t be a surprise.

Anita Marks, betting analyst: Jon Rahm (+1200). Rahm’s long game is ideal for success at Oakmont. He enters the week in excellent form, and his competitive intensity seems to be back. His T-14th at the Masters and T-8th at the PGA Championship suggest he`s ready to contend. Rahm leads LIV Golf in greens in regulation percentage, a crucial statistic for this course.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Gordon: Xander Schauffele (+210). I`m prioritizing his exceptional tournament history over his recent form for this price. Schauffele has achieved seven Top-10 finishes in his eight U.S. Open appearances; his worst finish was T-14th in 2022.

Maldonado: Keegan Bradley (+475). Golf success often comes down to trusting your swing. With consecutive Top-10 finishes and positive putting metrics, Bradley clearly has that trust right now. He is a high-quality ball striker across the board and surprisingly effective around the greens. While putting can be inconsistent for him, Bradley`s ballstriking ceiling is absolutely high enough for him to be in the mix.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler bet?

Gordon: To finish Round 1 in Top 10 (+150). Scheffler has been in the Top 10 after 10 of his last 11 major championship rounds (91%) dating back to last year. Historically, each of the last four U.S. Open winners, and nine of the past 11, were positioned inside the Top 10 after the first 18 holes.

Maldonado: To finish Round 1 in the Top 10 (+150). Ranking third on tour in Round 1 scoring average, Scheffler is exceptionally strong from the outset. Analyzing his strokes gained by round, Scottie is at his peak off the tee, with his irons, and tee-to-green during the opening round, gaining an average of 3.98 total strokes – at least 1.5 strokes better than his performance in any subsequent round. He starts hot and maintains solid play thereafter.

Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?

Gordon: Cameron Young: (+10000). Following a difficult start to the season with four missed cuts in five starts, Young recently finished T-4th at the RBC Canadian Open and tied for seventh at the Truist Championship three starts prior in Pennsylvania. He possesses considerable major championship experience and has performed well, with five Top 10s between the 2022 PGA and 2024 Masters.

Maldonado: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500). While putting and scrambling can be concerns, his approach play and ballstriking ability offer immense potential. With two Top 10 finishes in his last two starts, his form is peaking. He is currently performing exceptionally well from tee to green, ranking second in the field over the last 32 rounds. If you`re looking for a player with winning-level ballstriking at longer odds, Bradley is a strong consideration.

Any other bets stand out to you?

Gordon: Make the cut parlay: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104). English is experiencing a career-best year and has never missed the cut in his nine U.S. Open appearances. Fleetwood hasn`t missed a cut this season and has consistently been inside the Top 40 through 36 holes in his last 11 starts. Combining these two for a make-the-cut parlay feels like a safe bet.

Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140). The odds are short, but this bet might still be undervalued. Since January 2024, Scheffler has finished in the top five in 19 of his 31 starts, including 10 victories. Unlike many heavily favored bets, this one is strongly supported by data. Scheffler is remarkably consistent, rarely posts a poor round, and his ballstriking alone is often sufficient to keep him near the top, even if his putting isn`t perfect.

Tyler Fulghum: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120). DJ won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016, which feels like a distant memory now. Since moving to LIV in 2022, Johnson has not come close to contending in major championships. His best finish in 10 major starts since 2023 is T-31st at last year`s Open Championship. He has missed the cut five times during this period, including both the Masters and the PGA Championship this year.

Marks: McIlroy to miss the cut (+290). McIlroy hasn`t seemed quite the same player since winning the Masters. He posted a round of 78 in the second round of the Canadian Open and didn`t play well at Quail Hollow. His issues with the driver appear to be real, and his iron play has been inconsistent. It`s possible he has lost some of his competitive edge after achieving the career grand slam.

Marks: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190). Aberg was close to winning the Canadian Open, and I believe there is good value in betting on him to finish in the Top 20 at plus money. He drives the ball as effectively as anyone on tour, and he has recorded five consecutive rounds in the 60s recently.

Marks: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170). Straka is having an outstanding year, finishing third at the Memorial Tournament and securing two wins on tour this season. His strengths in ballstriking give him the potential to perform exceptionally well on this course. Straka ranks first in greens in regulation, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, second in strokes gained approach, and is in the top 10 for driving accuracy.