Former UFC champion Aljamain Sterling has weighed in on the highly anticipated lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria, set for UFC 317 on June 28th. Sterling highlighted Topuria`s potent striking power, emphasizing that Oliveira must recognize and respect this threat.
Oliveira, who faced early career criticism regarding his resilience, has since transformed into a formidable champion known for his ability to absorb punishment and counter effectively. This evolution has contributed to numerous highlight finishes and performance bonuses.
The upcoming bout is for the lightweight belt recently vacated by Islam Makhachev, who is moving up a weight class. (Topuria also vacated his featherweight title to pursue a second championship). Sterling expressed uncertainty about whether Oliveira`s typically aggressive, “berserker” style would be the right approach against Topuria.
“It`s intriguing because Oliveira is dropped in almost every fight,” Sterling noted on The Weekly Scraps podcast, estimating this has occurred in his last eight bouts. He contrasted this with Topuria`s known power, adding, “We know Ilia Topuria can crack.” Sterling recalled Topuria being dropped by Jai Herbert in his 155 lbs debut but recovering, noting Topuria claims to feel stronger and have greater power at lightweight after moving up from 145 lbs. “What is that power going to translate into at 155 and if he can touch Charles the way he hits everybody else, I think it’s a bad night,” Sterling predicted, suggesting it could pave the way for Topuria to become a two-division champion.
However, Sterling also pointed to the grappling aspect. “We haven’t seen anyone force the grappling issue against Ilia,” he stated, wondering if “do Bronx” might try to exploit this to potentially tire Topuria out and reduce the impact of his strikes. Sterling described this as a “big question mark” hanging over the fight.
Oliveira, 35, is widely regarded as one of the most dangerous grapplers in MMA history, holding a UFC record with 16 submission victories. He is also expected to have a size advantage over Topuria, adding an interesting dynamic to any close-range exchanges.
While primarily known for his striking, Topuria has demonstrated glimpses of wrestling ability, both offensively and defensively. His striking credentials include knockout wins over Alexander Volkanovski to claim the featherweight title (the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 lbs) and also being the first to knock out Max Holloway.
Given Topuria`s success against prominent fighters, Sterling mused about how far he might ascend in the sport`s historical ranks.
“It’s hard to count out do Bronx,” Sterling acknowledged, stating he still views Oliveira as a top fighter. Yet, reflecting on Topuria`s wins against fighters he held in similar regard like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, Sterling admitted it makes you wonder, “who’s stopping this guy?”
Oliveira holds a 2-2 record in his last four outings, following an impressive streak of 11 consecutive victories in the highly competitive lightweight division. Topuria, in contrast, maintains an undefeated professional record across 16 fights.
Sterling believes the fight`s outcome could hinge on which fighter successfully imposes their primary skillset – Topuria`s striking or Oliveira`s grappling. He anticipates this strategic battle could be a key factor throughout the planned five rounds, or for the duration of the contest.
“I’m leaning towards Ilia,” Sterling shared, viewing it as the “smart money” prediction. He acknowledged Oliveira`s potential path to victory, particularly if he can initiate grappling exchanges early, which might “surprise us and shows us that Ilia can get tired and take off some of the sting of those punches.”
Nevertheless, Sterling raised concerns about Oliveira`s performance in later rounds if he doesn`t secure an early finish, questioning his ability to “keep his hands up and defend the right way.” He also highlighted the difficulty for Oliveira in securing takedowns against a shorter opponent like Topuria, stating, “He’s got to close the distance… You’ve got to get underneath him. It’s hard.”
Marcus Blakely