How to bet on golf: Tips to win in 2025, plus U.S. Open picks

Betting on golf can be a fascinating, frustrating, yet thrilling challenge – much like facing a critical three-foot putt with friends watching. While there are numerous ways to wager on a tournament, simply betting on outright winners randomly and hoping for the best will likely lead to financial difficulties.

Instead, adopting a structured approach to building your betting card, balancing potential risks and rewards, is essential to stay competitive through Sunday.

When making golf bets, three primary factors are often crucial: course fit, current form, and course history.

• Course fit assesses how well a golfer`s abilities match the course design – whether it favors long hitters, demands precision, or comes down to putting skill.

• Current form considers recent results, momentum, and confidence. A player hitting the ball well recently is generally a better bet than one struggling with their swing.

• Course history reflects a player`s comfort and past performance on a specific course, perhaps due to the type of grass or positive memories. The ideal scenario is when all three factors align. However, successful betting often involves finding value by prioritizing one or two factors over the others.

Understanding Your Betting Options

Golf betting offers more than just picking the champion. Many different wagers exist, varying in risk level. Structuring your bets correctly can allow you to profit even if your top pick doesn`t win. Here`s a look at the most common types of bets:

Outright Winner

This is the classic bet on which player will lift the trophy on Sunday. Given the large fields in golf, outright odds are typically high, making these bets difficult to win. A 30-to-1 ticket is exciting, but relying solely on outright winners can quickly deplete your funds.

Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes

These are more cautious bets, with top-20 wagers offering the highest probability. Instead of needing a win, your chosen golfer just needs to finish within the specified range. A top-20 bet at +120 might not seem thrilling, but consistently winning these will help maintain your bankroll while you make smaller wagers on outright picks.

A golfer with 30-to-1 odds to win has an implied probability of winning around 3.2%. Compare this to a top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability) – a significant difference. This illustrates why it`s wise to bet less on long shots and more on wagers with higher probability.

First-Round Leader

This bet adds immediate excitement, focusing only on who leads after the first 18 holes instead of the entire four-day tournament. First-round leader odds are often 20-to-1 or longer, so these are typically bet with smaller unit sizes. Key factors include early tee times, favorable weather, and aggressive players. If you like a player`s chances to contend overall, it makes sense to risk something on them starting strong. If this bet hits, it can cover the cost of your other wagers, effectively letting you “freeroll.”

Head-to-Head Matchups

Compared to the long odds of outright winners, matchup bets are much more controlled. You simply pick one golfer to outperform another, either for a single round or the entire tournament. Betting on the full tournament usually provides a more stable outcome over four days, reducing the volatility of single-round matchups. Three-ball matchups involve picking one player out of three; they offer higher odds but also increased risk.

Props and Majors-Only Markets

Major championships introduce a variety of special bets. Some are available weekly, while others appear only for golf`s biggest events:

• Top American, Top European, etc.: Betting on the highest finishing player from a specific nationality or region.

• Will there be a hole-in-one?: A straightforward and popular bet.

• Lowest round, Highest round: Betting on whether a player will achieve a historically low score or post a very high score.

• Make the cut parlays: Combining multiple players who must all successfully make the cut to advance to the weekend rounds.

Structuring Your Betting Card and Managing Bet Size

Randomly placing bets and hoping for the best is not a viable strategy; it`s a quick way to run out of funds. And betting the same amount on every wager, regardless of odds, is also ill-advised.

Instead, structure your betting card around two or three main players and use a mix of bet types to balance risk and reward. Because golf odds vary significantly, your bet size should be proportional to the risk involved.

This approach works because top-20 bets offer consistency, winning more often and helping maintain your bankroll. Top-10 and top-5 wagers might use half a unit, while outright winners, being harder to hit, could be between 0.2 to 0.25 units. First-round leaders carry higher risk but offer high reward, allowing for smaller bet sizes while still providing a chance for a significant win. Spreading bets across different markets keeps your interest alive throughout the tournament. Even if your outright pick falters, a top-20 bet might still cash. The longer the odds, the smaller your bet size should be, as the implied probability of hitting is much lower. Betting too much on long shots can quickly deplete your funds during a cold streak.

If you are betting on multiple players (five or more), adjust individual bet sizes so that your total exposure remains controlled and you are not overly reliant on any single golfer.

PGA Tour`s Biggest Tournaments: The Four Majors and Golf`s `Fifth Major`

Like any form of betting, wagering on golf requires discipline and should enhance your viewing experience. Golf betting can be challenging, and expecting to hit an outright winner every week is unrealistic. However, by strategically structuring your bets, managing risk, and diversifying across markets, you can improve profitability and keep the excitement going all weekend.

U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)

The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)

With one of the strongest fields, a substantial purse, and TPC Sawgrass as the venue, The Players Championship is often considered golf`s “fifth major.” While not officially a major, its drama, history, and the iconic island green at 17 make it a highlight of the year.

Bets to Make on the 2025 U.S. Open

Odds are accurate as of publication.

The PGA Tour heads to Oakmont Golf Club for the U.S. Open, the third major of the year. Anticipate a brutally difficult test: thick, tall rough, narrow fairways, incredibly fast greens, and a winning score likely just under par. This course truly challenges elite players and their mental fortitude.

Oakmont favors golfers who excel in adversity. It`s like a strategic game played in challenging conditions. Success at Oakmont requires exceptional accuracy off the tee, strong mid-to-long iron play for approaches, and precise pace control on the sloping, ultra-fast greens.

Making par is a good achievement here. A round of four under par would be considered legendary. When betting or creating fantasy lineups, target players who are comfortable grinding out rounds in the 70s rather than feeling pressure to make numerous birdies.

Let`s analyze the upcoming third major of the season.

My Favorite Bets

Collin Morikawa Top 20 (+110)

If you prioritize precision, discipline, and high-level ball-striking, Morikawa is an excellent choice. Oakmont`s layout minimizes his slight disadvantage in driving distance, and his performance on tough courses (ranking fifth in strokes gained) indicates he thrives under challenging conditions. He ranks fifth in approach play and fourth in accuracy, statistics perfectly suited for Oakmont.

Although his 2025 results haven`t been spectacular wins, he shows consistent performance with eight top-20 finishes in 11 starts. Morikawa typically remains composed under pressure, and his game appears solid when conditions are difficult. If his short game is adequate, expect him to be in contention late on Sunday.

Corey Conners Top 20 (+150)

Despite a recent T27 finish, Conners remains one of the best value bets in the field. He is a top-10 ball-striker known for accuracy, is in good form, and his game is well-suited for Oakmont`s emphasis on discipline over power.

He ranks 11th in driving accuracy and has gained strokes tee-to-green in almost every start this year. While his short game is his main vulnerability, his strong ball-striking profile is exactly what`s needed when other players struggle. Conners may not produce many highlight shots, but his steady play is often sufficient at a demanding course like Oakmont.

Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+260)

Bradley is among the top players tee-to-green recently (second over the last 32 rounds). His seventh-place finish at the 2022 U.S. Open and his current form (consecutive top-10s at the PGA Championship and the Memorial) suggest he has the game to contend if his putting holds up.

Bradley possesses winning-level ball-striking, an underrated short game, and odds that seem quite generous given his recent performance. He is a valuable addition to a betting card, possibly with a small bet on his outright odds at 75-1 as a high-reward long shot.

How to Play Scottie Scheffler

Realistically, his odds are very short: -150 for a top 5 finish and +275 to win outright. However, this is justified. Scheffler is elite in every aspect of his game and seems to have no significant weaknesses.

No other player is currently performing at Scheffler`s level. The -150 price for a top 5 is high, but it`s a price worth paying because Scheffler consistently delivers. For a stable, reliable bet to anchor your card, Scheffler top 5 is ideal. He has finished in the top five in six of his last eight starts and leads the field in nearly all strokes-gained categories, including tee-to-green and approach play. This bet is based on proven consistency and form, not speculation.

If you prefer longer odds, consider other options like Scheffler to be the first-round leader at 12-1, or wait for potentially better top-5 or outright odds during live betting. Oakmont is a course where players must grind and survive, which could create opportunities for live wagering. Betting on him for the lowest second-round score (after Round 1 concludes) could also be a smart move, as he leads the tour in second-round scoring average.

Unless you need a strong leg for a parlay or are building a card around a safe bet from the start, waiting for live odds might be the sharper play, especially when other top-20 bets offer more value upfront. And if he plays flawlessly from the start and we miss out? Then we can simply appreciate watching a truly great player perform.

Why I`m Avoiding Jon Rahm

Initially, I considered betting on Rahm for a top 10 finish (+130) and possibly outright (12-1) after his top-15 results at the Masters and PGA Championship, but I`ve decided against it. He lost strokes on approach shots in all four rounds at Augusta, which is concerning for a player known for his ball-striking, especially heading to Oakmont where approach play is paramount.

Yes, he recovered at the PGA Championship, but that seems like a single strong performance amidst a series of LIV top-10s that don`t carry the same weight. Asking for +130 odds for a top-10 finish now seems poor value. Recently, there`s been a noticeable tension in Rahm`s game at Tour events, which makes me hesitant. At a venue as demanding as Oakmont, I look for composure, not a player who might be under pressure waiting to boil over.