Looking ahead to the weekend at the 2025 PGA Championship

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The second round of the PGA Championship is complete. While there was less discussion about the mud balls that were a major topic after the first round, many players improved their positions, and the leaderboard remained notably diverse.

Some surprising names near the top after Thursday couldn`t replicate their performance, but 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas held steady and now leads after 36 holes. Perhaps the biggest story, however, was world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler shooting 3 under and positioning himself well to secure his third major title.

“I think most of me is just glad to be close to the lead. If you`re going to play a 72-hole golf tournament, there`s going to be days and stretches of golf where you`re not swinging it your best,” Scheffler said. “Over the course of a tournament this long and on a major championship setup, there`s going to be some bumps in the road. It`s all about how you respond to those. I managed my mistakes well today and stayed in contention.”

Furthermore, Scheffler remains the favorite to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.

Here`s what to look for this weekend.

Jhonattan Vegas leads at the halfway point; what are his chances of winning?

Mark Schlabach: `Johnny Vegas` might not be the most widely recognized winner among golf fans, but he has a remarkable story given his career path. He was a top junior player in Venezuela before moving to Houston in 2004 after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reportedly threatened to convert urban golf courses into public housing.

When Vegas arrived in the U.S., he reportedly knew only ten English words and had a worn set of clubs. He developed his game enough to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning professional, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before achieving his first PGA Tour victory at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has since won three more times, most recently at the 3M Open in July.

Vegas mentioned he didn`t sleep well before Friday`s round after finishing late the previous day. Sleeping on his first major lead likely didn`t help either. He will have to sleep on another two-shot advantage before the third round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open. This is only his third start in the four major championships since then.

A double-bogey 6 on the 18th hole marred what was otherwise a solid second round for Vegas. He finished 1-under 70 and held a two-stroke lead as he left the course. After gaining nearly four strokes on the field with his putting in the first round, he cooled off significantly in the second, losing almost one stroke. His play from tee to green continued to be exceptional.

I`d be surprised if Vegas leads wire-to-wire to win the PGA Championship.

Paolo Uggetti: Data Golf gives Vegas a 9.4% chance to win. This means that even with a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend, Vegas is only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% chance, three shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% chance, five shots back) make up the top three.

The fact that Vegas not only stayed in contention in the second round but shot under par and is still holding onto the lead is impressive. However, my personal assessment of his actual chances would be closer to 5% or less.

“I feel like my game is very complete, but I just haven`t been able to put it all together in a major,” Vegas said Friday. “I think I`ve been patient enough to not really get too down on myself for not playing well at majors. It`s just kind of one of those things that you`ve just got to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play good here. Unfortunately, it`s taking me a little bit longer than usual, but I`m glad that I`m in this position right now.”

It would be a fantastic story, as Mark explained, but if Vegas ends up hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it will be one of the most improbable major wins we`ve seen since Jimmy Walker`s PGA victory in 2017. Perhaps even more unlikely.

Which player(s) outside the top 10 do you think could still win?

Mark Schlabach: I picked DeChambeau to win before the tournament began, and he`s still within reach at 3 under. The LIV Golf player bounced back from an even-par 71 in the first round with a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is tied for 17th, five strokes behind Vegas.

DeChambeau is driving the ball a great distance at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting, as expected, has been solid. However, DeChambeau`s iron game isn`t quite sharp, similar to the Masters, and he isn`t happy with his short game (he lost nearly two strokes on Thursday and improved slightly on Friday).

“You have to have your irons super precise this week, which we all know how good my wedges are, so that makes it a little bit more difficult for me,” DeChambeau said. “That`s OK, though.”

“It`s a great test. I`ve just got to have my putting a little more on and keep playing the way I am. It easily could be 7, 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So just keep moving along, and I think a 65, 64 is out there. I almost shot it out there today and I definitely saw it out there, I just didn`t accomplish it.”

Paolo Uggetti: There are many big names lurking outside the top 10, and when a tournament feels relatively open, as this one does, it could be anyone`s game.

Still, even on a course like Quail Hollow, I expect the top players will likely move up. And despite his recent struggles to contend in some majors, perhaps no one is better at doing that than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard played two quiet, yet very solid rounds of golf and is at 2 under, six shots behind Vegas, heading into the weekend.

“I think I`m in good position,” Rahm said. “Adding to the fact that I feel like I`m getting better, more confident with the swing. I made a lot of good swings out there today and gave myself plenty of chances.”

The discussion around Rahm at the majors has focused on his struggle to contend since winning the 2023 Masters, but it`s easy to forget that back then, he was one of the most consistent and dominant players. He continues to perform well on LIV, however you evaluate that, and it would not surprise me to see him making a run at the top this weekend. He could certainly benefit from it.

How far back is too far to still be in contention?

Paolo Uggetti: Is it too bold to say anyone who made the cut could make a charge? Probably, but this setup, like many PGAs in the past, has kept the leaderboard quite compact. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players like Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) could shoot a low score and make a run. As far as I`m concerned, the true leader in the tournament right now is Scheffler at 5 under, but that also means that Scheffler would need to falter, and that doesn`t seem likely either. Players like Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy will need to shoot in the mid-to-low 60s to have any chance, but it`s not impossible.

A more realistic perspective is that 1 under is probably too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven shots behind the leader presents a significant challenge.

Who is your pick right now heading into the weekend?

Mark Schlabach: I picked Scottie after the first round, and he improved by one stroke Friday with a 3-under 68, which placed him in a tie for fifth. He got better in almost every statistical category in the second round, except for driving accuracy (six of 14 fairways hit).

“I like the position I`m in going into the weekend,” Scheffler said. “Obviously, I wish I was a little bit further up the leaderboard. I think I got a lot out of my game the last couple days. I felt like, as the round went on, my swing continued to get better, and I was able to hit some key shots down the stretch to give myself some opportunities. Looking forward to the weekend.”

Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open winner, is the only other golfer in the top 10 who has won a major. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens are unlikely to hold off Scheffler when he makes a charge.

Paolo Uggetti: Scheffler seems inevitable, especially considering he hasn`t yet played a round fully demonstrating why he`s the unquestioned world No. 1. However, I keep thinking about Bryson. He`s been far from perfect this week and is clearly still struggling with his approach game (77th in the field), but it also seems like he`s due for a round where everything comes together. His driving remains an unbelievable weapon; he just needs to find more fairways to have a chance.

What player missing the cut was the biggest disappointment?

Mark Schlabach: There are many valid options because several of the world`s top golfers, including Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over), won`t be at Quail Hollow for the weekend.

I would probably choose JT because I thought he had a real opportunity to make a strong challenge this week. He won three weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and captured his first major at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the first round) and 16 of 36 greens. He made nine birdies but also made too many errors.

Paolo Uggetti: I`ll go with Åberg. He had been inconsistent coming into this week, but it still seemed like Quail Hollow would suit his game well. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach. It`s a small sample size, and perhaps expectations have been set too high too quickly, but that`s now two missed cuts in two PGA Championship appearances for Åberg.