Betting on golf can be a captivating, challenging, and thrilling endeavor – much like facing a crucial three-foot putt for par with your friends watching. While there are numerous ways to wager on a tournament, simply betting on outright winners without a strategy is likely to deplete your funds quickly.
Instead, here is a step-by-step guide on how to structure your betting card more effectively, balancing risk and reward to improve your chances of being successful come Sunday.
When considering golf bets, three critical factors are often considered: course fit, current form, and course history.
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Course fit refers to how a golfer`s skills match the course design – whether it favors long hitters, requires precise shot-making, or emphasizes putting.
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Current form assesses recent performance, momentum, and confidence. A player performing well recently is generally a better bet than one struggling with their game.
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Course history relates to a player`s past performance and comfort level on a specific course. Some players consistently perform well at certain venues due to turf type, layout, or positive memories. The ideal scenario is when all three factors align. However, savvy betting involves finding value, which sometimes means prioritizing one factor over the others to gain an edge.
Understanding Your Betting Options
Golf betting offers a variety of options beyond simply picking the tournament winner. Some wagers are more conservative than others. Structuring your bets intelligently can allow you to profit even if your top pick doesn`t win. Here`s a summary of popular bet types:
Outright Winner
This is the standard bet: predicting who will win the tournament and lift the trophy on Sunday. Due to the large fields in golf, the odds for outright winners are often very high, but hitting such a bet is consequently difficult. While a 30-1 ticket is exciting, focusing solely on outright winners can quickly empty your bankroll, leaving it looking as rough as a U.S. Open fairway.
Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes
Consider these bets as more conservative options, with Top 20 finishes offering the highest probability. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just need to finish within a specified range (Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20). While a Top 20 bet at +120 might not seem thrilling, consistently winning these bets is crucial for maintaining your bankroll while you also place smaller bets on outright winners.
A golfer listed at 30-1 to win the tournament has an implied probability of winning around 3.2%. Compare this to a Top 20 bet at +200 (implying a 33% probability) – the difference is significant, right? This is why I allocate smaller amounts to longer odds and larger amounts to higher-probability bets.
First-Round Leader
This bet adds excitement. You only need your chosen golfer to be leading after the first 18 holes, not the entire four-day tournament. Since odds for the first-round leader are often 20-1 or higher, I bet these using fractions of a unit (more on that later). Key factors for betting on the first-round leader include early tee times, calm weather conditions, and players known for aggressive scoring. If you like a player`s chances to potentially win the tournament, it`s certainly worth risking a smaller amount on them starting strong in the opening round. If it hits, you essentially get to `freeroll` (play with winnings) the rest of your bets.
Head-to-Head Matchups
If betting on outright winners is like taking a risky shot at the pin, matchup bets are like a safer play to the center of the green. You simply pick one golfer to finish better than another, either for a single round or the entire tournament. This is a much more controlled way to bet. I prefer betting on the full tournament outcome in matchups, as it reflects the overall performance over four days, rather than the higher volatility of a single round. There are also three-ball matchups, similar to head-to-head but involving three players. These offer longer odds but introduce more risk with an extra competitor.
Prop Bets and Majors-Only Markets
Major championships offer a wide selection of interesting prop bets. Some are available weekly, while others are unique to golf`s biggest events:
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Top Nationality/Region: Betting on the highest-finishing player from a specific country or region (e.g., Top American, Top European).
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Hole-in-One Prop: Betting yes or no on whether a hole-in-one will occur during the tournament. Always exciting, always tempting.
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Lowest/Highest Round Score: Betting on the lowest score recorded in any round or the highest score.
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Make the Cut Parlays: Combining multiple players into a single bet, all of whom must successfully make the cut to advance to the weekend rounds.
Structuring Your Bets and Managing Bankroll
Placing bets randomly and hoping for a big win isn`t a strategy; it`s a quick way to run out of money before the tournament weekend. And if you`re betting the same amount on every wager, stop immediately – that`s like using a putter from the fairway.
Instead, I recommend building your betting card around a core of two or three players and incorporating different bet types to balance potential risk and reward. Since golf odds vary greatly, your bet size should be proportional to the risk involved.
This approach works because Top 20 bets offer consistency, cashing more frequently and helping to keep your bankroll stable. Wagers like Top 10 and Top 5 might use half a unit (.5 units), while outright winner bets, being harder to hit, might range from .2 to .25 units. First-round leader bets, though higher risk, offer high reward for smaller bet sizes, potentially allowing you to `freeroll` the rest of your card if successful. Spreading bets across various markets keeps you engaged throughout the tournament. Even if your outright pick struggles, your Top 20 bet could still win. Remember, the longer the odds, the smaller your bet size should be, as the implied probability of hitting is much lower. Betting too much on long shots can quickly lead to losses if you experience a cold streak.
If you decide to bet on multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total staked amount needs to be carefully balanced so you don`t overcommit to any single golfer. As you add more players, you must adjust the individual bet sizes downwards to keep your total potential exposure in check.
Major Tournaments and Golf`s `Fifth Major`
Ultimately, successful golf betting, like any form of wagering, requires discipline. Use betting as a way to enhance your enjoyment of watching the sport. Golf betting can be challenging; if you expect to pick an outright winner every week, you`re likely to be disappointed. However, by structuring your bets smartly, managing risk, and diversifying your exposure across different markets, you can stay profitable and maintain interest throughout the weekend.
Key tournaments mentioned:
- PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, N.C.)
- U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
- The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
- Masters Tournament (Rory McIlroy won in playoff)
The Players Championship (Rory McIlroy won in playoff) is often called golf`s `fifth major`. With one of the strongest fields of the year, a massive prize purse, and the iconic TPC Sawgrass course featuring the famous island green at the 17th hole, it comes as close to a major championship as possible without the official status. It might not have the `major` label, but its drama, history, and the challenging nature of the course make it one of the year`s premier tournaments.
PGA Championship 2025 Betting Picks
Odds are accurate as of publication.
Quail Hollow demands a blend of boldness and intelligence from players. It requires taking calculated risks off the tee while possessing the skill to recover from challenging situations. The course rewards golfers who know when to play aggressively and when to exercise caution. For this PGA Championship, I favor players who are comfortable taking chances yet remain steady under pressure. The golfers who typically perform well at Quail Hollow are those who can drive the ball long distances, hit towering long irons, and have exceptional scrambling ability when they miss the green.
This year`s tournament feels like a classic showdown between Rory McIlroy and the LIV Golf players. McIlroy boasts a strong history at this course, current good form, and deep course knowledge – he`s practically the dominant figure here. Opposing him are LIV players like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, entering with something to prove, but doing so on what many see as Rory`s home ground. This isn`t just about golfing skill; it involves pride and making a statement. If there`s one place where Rory is likely to assert his dominance and remind everyone of his command of the course, it`s here at Quail Hollow.
Let`s analyze the betting opportunities for golf`s second major championship.
My Recommended Bets
Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and Outright Win (+475)
Choosing the second favorite – how predictable, right? However, betting on McIlroy at Quail Hollow is like putting a lion back in its natural habitat. He knows this course intimately, having won here four times, including his first PGA Championship title in 2010 and the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. His combination of driving distance and ability to score well on par-5s makes him ideally suited for the layout. Quail Hollow favors aggressive drivers who can shape their shots, and McIlroy`s high fade fits the course perfectly.
Although Rory just won the 2025 Masters, demonstrating his ability to finish strong under significant pressure and navigate the tournament`s challenges, his putting – often considered his weaker area – has been reliable recently. If he maintains this momentum at Charlotte, he`s a strong contender to dominate the field. He`s also been excellent with his approach shots, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach over the last 32 rounds.
Quail Hollow`s greens are challenging, but when McIlroy is in form, his confident putting stroke on fast surfaces is a definite advantage. He ranks second in strokes gained from tee-to-green and excels with long irons, which is critical on a course stretching over 7,500 yards. His top-tier ballstriking and familiarity with the course make him a high-confidence pick for both a Top 5 finish and the outright win.
For the Masters, I suggested waiting until after Round 1 to potentially get better live odds. However, given his dominance at Quail Hollow, taking the pre-tournament odds on McIlroy is advisable this time; his history here makes it a worthwhile bet. If the outright odds are too low for your preference, the Top 5 bet offers excellent value.
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)
There are only two players I would feel consistently comfortable betting on for a Top 5 finish: Rory and Scottie. Scheffler embodies consistency. He has accumulated numerous top finishes in elite tournaments this season, with three top-5s in his last four starts, including a dominant win at the RBC Heritage where he finished 31-under par. He currently possesses the best tee-to-green game on tour and leads in total strokes gained. This level of consistency is effective anywhere, even at a venue like Quail Hollow where he is making his PGA Tour debut. While risky, this bet is warranted.
His recent improvement in putting is a significant advantage. Even when he`s not performing at his absolute peak, his exceptional ballstriking keeps him competitive.
Considering his recent win and upward trending form, combined with his ability to maintain composure in major championships, getting Scheffler at plus money (+105) for a Top 5 finish appears to be a solid, calculated wager.
Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)
Betting on Rahm for a Top 20 finish at the PGA Championship makes good sense. Quail Hollow is well-suited to a player like him: he drives the ball long, is accurate with long irons, and can grind out scores under difficult conditions. He ranks ninth in driving distance and eleventh in accuracy, allowing him to hit it far while keeping the ball in play, which is precisely what this course demands. Unlike Augusta, where he surprisingly lost strokes on approach (only the second time this year), Quail Hollow`s layout favors his reliable tee-to-green play. Rahm`s long game is typically very strong, and this course setup allows him to rely on that strength without being excessively penalized for a rare less-than-perfect iron week. The -105 price feels like a value bet for a player who has finished in the top 15 in five of his last ten major appearances.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)
Conners consistently impresses me. His tee-to-green game is exceptionally sharp, ranking sixth in the field, which is crucial at Quail Hollow. His driving accuracy (17th) is a significant asset, especially with the potential for thick, penal rough. Furthermore, his skill with long irons, particularly from 200 to 225 yards (ranking eighth), provides a real advantage on the longer par-4s. While his putting can be inconsistent, he doesn`t need an extraordinary putting week to secure a Top 20 finish. At +200 odds, you are getting value on a player whose game is perfectly suited for this course layout, and who is currently on a hot streak of Top 20 finishes, with six in his last seven starts. At +200, the implied probability seems too low for a player of his ability on this course.
Full Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups
Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau
This matchup comes down to reliability. McIlroy`s game consistently performs well over four rounds at a demanding course like Quail Hollow. DeChambeau, conversely, is more of a wildcard, as seen at Augusta last month where he shot 10 under par over the first three days but finished 3 over on the final day. When DeChambeau`s driver is erratic or his putting falters, his rounds can quickly go downhill. McIlroy`s proven history at Quail Hollow and his balanced game give him the advantage. Bryson might outdrive him, but Rory`s combination of distance and accuracy makes him the more dependable choice over four rounds.
Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa
On a course extending over 7,500 yards, Rahm`s ability to hit the ball long while maintaining fairway accuracy is invaluable. Even when Rahm isn`t playing his absolute best, he typically manages to grind out a solid finish. Morikawa, however, can struggle significantly if his putting or short game isn`t sharp. This potential for volatility makes him a riskier choice in a head-to-head matchup. You`re essentially betting on Rahm`s power combined with accuracy and his ability to minimize mistakes, skills essential for success over four rounds at Quail Hollow.
How to Bet on Bryson DeChambeau
You might be strongly considering betting on DeChambeau to win this tournament, and that`s understandable. His full-throttle driving style is ideally suited for Quail Hollow, and if he has control of his game, he can overpower the course.
However, in my view, a Top 10 bet at +110 doesn`t offer sufficient value. DeChambeau`s game can change rapidly: when he`s on, he can dominate, but one poor shot can derail his round. I prefer to wait and observe how he performs in Round 1 before making a wager. If he shows good form, you might find more favorable live odds for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish.
Marcus Blakely