PGA Championship 2025: Expert Predictions and Betting Guide

The second major championship of the year is set to tee off with the 2025 PGA Championship, running from Thursday through Sunday at the challenging Quail Hollow Club.

Our panel of golf analysts provides their insights: Which players are expected to contend for the title? Where can bettors find potential value? We delve into the top contenders and offer tips ahead of the 2025 PGA Championship.

Expert Picks to Win

Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy: I believe certain players hit their `run,` and Rory is experiencing that now. Fresh off completing the career Grand Slam, he returns to a venue where he has triumphed four times. It`s a course he dominates, and I expect him to win again.

Tory Barron: Justin Thomas: Perhaps it`s recent performance influencing this pick, but JT appears ready to claim his third PGA Championship. Breaking his nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff win at the RBC Heritage in April, followed by a runner-up finish at the Truist Championship, indicates he has the confidence and putting game needed to perform well at Quail Hollow, site of his 2017 Wanamaker Trophy win. (Disclaimer: If Brooks Koepka wins when I finally don`t pick him, I`m switching allegiances to LIV.)

Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler: How many times will we underestimate the WORLD #1? His calm demeanor is often mistaken for a lack of killer instinct. The competitor in him will be highly motivated. Once again, the field will learn.

Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas: Something clearly clicked for Thomas in October 2024. He tied for 2nd at the Zozo Championship and has since regained elite form. Returning to the course where he secured his first PGA Championship victory, he is poised to win there once more.

Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy: Winning the Masters lifted a significant weight. He might now play the most relaxed golf of his career in nearly a decade. A relaxed Rory is a formidable opponent. With four previous wins at Quail Hollow, he truly owns this course. Is it time for Grand Slam discussions again?

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy: Sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick. He secured the Masters and the career Grand Slam, and he has been the world`s best golfer in 2025. Add in a course favoring distance where he has won four times, and he`s the clear choice.

Andy North: Shane Lowry: He has been in excellent form recently. He is a strong driver of the ball and excels with his iron play.

Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau: If the winner needs length off the tee, precise long irons, and consistent putting, Bryson fits the bill. He will want to bounce back from his final round at the Masters. He recently won an event on the LIV Golf League in Korea. With top-six finishes in four of the last five majors, including runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla, he is ready to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his two U.S. Open titles.

Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy: He arrives at the PGA Championship having already won this year`s two most prestigious events: the Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of constant questions and pressure are gone. He possesses confidence in every aspect of his game. He has mental, emotional, spiritual, and physical freedom.

Now he returns to Quail Hollow, a course where he holds the lowest scoring average among players with at least 20 rounds recorded in PGA Tour history. And yes, he has won at Quail four times.

Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy over Scottie by 1. I always support the Masters Champion at the PGA, hoping for Grand Slam talk later in the year.

Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy: Given Rory`s current performance and strong history at Quail Hollow, picking him seems almost too easy. But I cannot logically choose anyone else. While we might be caught up in the moment – winning one major is hard enough, let alone two consecutively – everything about this week`s setup favors the player who has clearly been playing the best golf globally this year.

Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau: Quail Hollow is known as a `big ballpark,` and this week it`s also expected to be quite wet. This condition will amplify the advantage of DeChambeau`s length off the tee, leading me to believe he will win.

Betting Roundtable Insights

Who is your pick to win?

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host: Xander Schauffele (+2000). While picking McIlroy or Scheffler is tempting, their odds (+500 or worse) are quite high. Looking beyond the top two, Schauffele is a strong consideration. His disciplined, well-rounded game is suited for a demanding tournament like this, featuring long distances and deep competition.

2025 PGA Championship Betting Favorites

David Gordon, ESPN Research: Shane Lowry (+4500). There`s a compelling argument that Lowry belongs closer to the top of the second tier of players, yet his odds don`t fully reflect this. If neither Rory nor Xander wins, I`ll favor Lowry, who currently ranks third in strokes gained: tee-to-green and has two top-six finishes in the past four PGA Championships.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Rory McIlroy (+475). Although he recently won the Masters, Quail Hollow presents a different scenario; it`s his domain. The course perfectly suits his strengths – powerful drives and towering long irons – which explains his four victories here. He possesses intimate knowledge of every contour, and his playing style is ideal for this layout. The odds are short, but when McIlroy plays at Quail, he is defending his throne.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550).

Apart from Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers tend to be less prominent in discussions. This creates potential value for them in majors. Among LIV players, Reed has performed relatively well in majors since joining the league. He finished third at Augusta in April and tied for 2nd in 2017 when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow.

Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140)

DeChambeau has recorded more top-five finishes (three) than any other player at the PGA Championship since 2020. His six top-five major finishes since 2020 have occurred at different venues, demonstrating his ability to contend regardless of the course style. Length off the tee, combined with shorter rough, has been effective for recent winners at Quail Hollow (like McIlroy and Wyndham Clark). While I believe Bryson is a solid pick for a top-five finish, I`ll take the added safety with a top-10 bet.

Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190)

Rahm is known for his driving distance, precision with long irons, and resilience on difficult courses. Quail Hollow favors players who can manage the long par 4s and handle the pressure of the “Green Mile,” qualities Rahm possesses in abundance. Even on an off day, Rahm`s baseline performance can exceed most players` best. His approach play sets up numerous opportunities, making him a threat even when his putting falters.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy bet?

Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200)

Finding an appealing plus-money bet for McIlroy is challenging, but this one stands out. McIlroy isn`t always the fastest starter in majors, but this is a course he dominates. Coming off his Masters win, he could start confidently and freely here.

Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110)

Pamela and Tyler have already articulated the case for McIlroy well. While fading a player who just equaled the PGA Tour`s 72-hole scoring record might seem daunting, McIlroy holds the advantage in course familiarity, length, and putting on this particular track.

Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200)

The biggest challenge is behind him – he completed the career Grand Slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow feeling grounded, composed, and in control. Golf demands both skill and mental fortitude, and he now possesses clarity and confidence. Given his comfort level with the course, if he simply plays his natural game without forcing anything, his focus will be sharp and his execution methodical.

Who are your favorite long shots/value bets (odds 100-1 or longer)?

Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500)

Currently, Finau`s game doesn`t strongly suggest he will contend, except for his significant distance off the tee. However, the price offers excellent value for a player of his talent. The PGA Championship, more so than other majors, is known for producing unexpected first-time winners.

Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500)

McCarthy tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and T-8 the year before. He is one of only three players (along with Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood) with eight or more rounds of par or better at this course over the past two years. While his lack of distance is a concern, he clearly compensates for it effectively at Quail Hollow. His best finish this season was T-5 at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on tour. I`m willing to take a risk on his hot putting continuing.

Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000)

His recent form is intriguing. Over his last four starts, Mitchell has secured five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a T-7 at the Truist Championship last week, showing a strong trend of consistency. His ball-striking has been solid, and he has made notable gains tee-to-green. He also has two top-10 finishes specifically at Quail Hollow. While +320 for a top-20 makes more sense, a small bet at +11000 could be worthwhile for fun.

Are there any other bets that stand out to you?

Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165)

Conners has successfully hit this market in four of the last five majors (the exception being last year`s Open Championship) and in six of the last eight majors overall. He was the low Canadian at the PGA Championship twice during that span. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season are surpassed only by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished T-13 and T-8 in the past two years at Quail Hollow.

Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele

Thomas knows how to win at this venue. While Schauffele possesses the necessary skills to contend, his approach game doesn`t quite match up with Thomas`s. JT`s iron play is stronger, giving him an edge on a course that heavily rewards precise iron shots. In a comparison of ball-striking consistency tee-to-green, Thomas makes the difference.