UFC 315 is now complete, bringing a new champion to the welterweight division.
At the event, Jack Della Maddalena achieved the most significant victory of his career, delivering a dominant performance to earn a unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad and capture the welterweight championship.
What`s next for “JDM” and how long can he hold the belt? What`s the state of the flyweight division after Valentina Shevchenko`s win over Manon Fiorot? Is Jose Aldo truly retiring? Let`s address these questions in this week`s mailbag.
How will Jack Della Maddalena`s time as champion unfold?
Predicting the duration of his reign largely depends on the outcome of his first title defense, which currently feels like a toss-up.
Islam Makhachev is set to challenge JDM first, and that fight`s winner is far from certain. My initial feeling leans toward Makhachev, primarily because he`s widely considered the best fighter on the planet, a factor that carries significant weight. Furthermore, I view Makhachev as a more complete fighter than Muhammad, who fought JDM to a close decision. Theoretically, this suggests Makhachev could perform even better. However, on the flip side, JDM demonstrates notable improvement with each fight, showcased significantly enhanced takedown defense against Muhammad, and possesses a dangerous skill set that could trouble Makhachev. For these reasons, I wouldn`t confidently bet on Makhachev.
JDM`s challenge doesn`t end with Makhachev, even if he wins. The welterweight division is currently packed with exceptional rising talent. After facing Islam, Della Maddalena will likely need to contend with threats like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, Sean Brady, or Joaquin Buckley. Beyond them, prospects such as Michael Morales and Carlos Prates are also ascending the ranks. The 170-pound title picture is a true shark tank right now. While JDM might navigate it for a while, it`s difficult to envision anyone clearing out this entire murderers` row.
Can you break down the implications of JDM`s win for both the welterweight (170) and lightweight (155) divisions? What`s the immediate future for Shavkat, Brady, Belal, and Buckley while Islam challenges for the title? And how does this affect the lightweight belt?
Far from creating a mess, the situation has become relatively clear, though perhaps not ideal for everyone involved.
Islam Makhachev will face JDM for the welterweight title later this year, possibly when the UFC returns to Australia in the autumn or in Abu Dhabi. As Makhachev vacated his lightweight belt, Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria are scheduled to fight for the vacant title at UFC 317. Arman Tsarukyan will likely face Justin Gaethje soon for a shot at the winner of Oliveira vs. Topuria.
Regarding the welterweight division, Garry and Brady are likely headed for a matchup. The winner of the Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley bout will probably face Belal Muhammad next. The main variable is Shavkat Rakhmonov, but it`s plausible he`ll attend the Islam vs. JDM fight cageside and challenge the winner early next year.
This plan could change if the UFC opts for a more chaotic route. Should Topuria defeat Oliveira and Makhachev overcome Della Maddalena, the demand for a potential Makhachev vs. Topuria super-fight would reach a fever pitch. If the UFC secures a major new broadcast deal, what better way to launch it than with a Makhachev vs. Topuria welterweight title clash sometime next year? While this scenario would be highly unfair to many contenders, most fans might not object.
What`s next for Alexa Grasso? Does her championship now seem like a fluke? Also, Mayra Bueno Silva looked strong; does she have a real chance against Shevchenko and is she the future at flyweight?
Alexa Grasso certainly had a difficult night at UFC 315 and is now in a precarious career position. It appears her title-winning performance might be remembered as an anomaly.
It`s important to clarify that Grasso`s victory over Shevchenko wasn`t a fluke. However, it now seems clear it wasn`t the statistically most probable outcome. If they fought ten times, Shevchenko would likely win more than half. Yet, Grasso was perfectly prepared on the crucial night and found a path to victory, which is commendable.
This situation reinforces my frequent observation: consistently defending a title is incredibly challenging in MMA. Each time a champion steps into the octagon, they face an opponent who has dedicated their life to preparing for that specific moment. One error, one misstep, and the title is gone.
As for Grasso`s future, her options appear limited. She likely cannot realistically make the strawweight (115 lbs) limit and would be significantly undersized at bantamweight (135 lbs), essentially keeping her at flyweight. With a new wave of rising contenders in the division, she might unfortunately serve as a stepping stone for future title hopefuls.
Regarding Mayra Bueno Silva, yes, she likely represents the future of the flyweight division. She delivered an impressive performance at UFC 315. While I wouldn`t definitively pick her to beat Shevchenko in their next fight, she certainly possesses the capability to do so. I believe Silva and Erin Blanchfield are destined to engage in multiple flyweight title fights in the years to come.
However, for the immediate future, the most logical and exciting matchup is Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili. This pits two of the greatest female fighters of all time against each other – it`s a fight that simply must happen next.
Do you genuinely believe Jose Aldo is retiring?
I do not.
After losing a questionable decision to Aiemann Zahabi at UFC 315, Jose Aldo suggested it was likely his final time competing in the octagon. The UFC Hall of Famer and arguably featherweight`s greatest of all time later reiterated this sentiment, stating it “may have been” his last fight. To me, that specific phrasing provides a key insight. If his decision were absolute, he wouldn`t use “may.”
While this is speculative, I suspect Aldo was simply frustrated following the fight. It`s a point I`ve made previously, but it`s difficult to overstate how poorly the UFC has managed the final phase of his career. While booking Jonathan Martinez in Rio was understandable, matching Aldo against Mario Bautista and Zahabi felt nonsensical. These opponents lack significant name recognition, making it inherently harder to get motivated to face them. His candid admission about his weight cut failing due to a mental block, in my view, suggests a fighter struggling to fully commit mentally to fighting a relatively unknown opponent. Why would he be fully locked in? These weren`t legendary matchups or legacy-defining fights, just opponents. It`s hard to believe he wouldn`t be more focused if he were facing a major name in a high-stakes bout. Adding to the frustration, his last two losses were the result of disputed decisions.
I believe after taking some time for reflection, Aldo will realize he isn`t finished with fighting entirely; he`s just finished participating in meaningless contests. However, if the UFC approaches him in a few months saying, “We`re hosting an event in Rio this fall, how about you vs. Patricio Pitbull?”, I suspect Aldo would change his tune.
At least, that`s what I hope.
Marcus Blakely