The ongoing saga between Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall, the lineal and interim UFC heavyweight champions, continues to unfold on social media, with both fighters frequently exchanging barbs. Meanwhile, UFC CEO Dana White consistently reiterates his belief that the highly anticipated title unification bout will indeed happen.
However, UFC veteran Renato Moicano does not share White`s optimism.
“I think it`s absurd,” Moicano told MMA Fighting concerning the possibility of Aspinall being sidelined for an extended period without a chance to unify the belts. “He [Jones] is doing the same thing [Conor] McGregor did to [Michael] Chandler, waiting two years, likely hoping to bypass Tom Aspinall`s prime. The difference is that one is a champion – but McGregor was more than a champion because he possessed the `McGregor hype`.”
Moicano believes White genuinely wants to book the fight. Nevertheless, while the company could theoretically move on if Jones decided to retire rather than face a younger challenger like Aspinall, having Jones`s image and presence is strategically valuable, especially during negotiations for an important new TV deal.
“The UFC is in a difficult situation because at the same time they want to resolve this, they still need Jon Jones – at least his image, just as they need McGregor,” Moicano stated. “These are two problems the UFC would rather not face, but if they were to dismiss or sideline these guys, the company would incur significant losses. There isn`t the same kind of space for singular megastars as there was in the past, like McGregor, Jon Jones, Ronda Rousey, and Brock Lesnar. Stardom is more spread out now. I believe the only recent star who approached that level of appeal was Alex Pereira, who had it but lost it. Had he defeated [Magomed] Ankalaev, he would be on that plateau of popularity.”
He continued, “But Pereira lost, and Ankalaev is the [champion]. Tell me, which champion is popular right now? You have [Alexandre] Pantoja, who isn`t popular. [Merab] Dvalishvili is gaining popularity but isn`t a major star either. [Alexander] Volkanovski is popular but has lost twice to Islam [Makhachev] and is getting older – and he was never a global phenomenon quite like Max Holloway. At 155, you have Islam, who is immensely popular in the Arab world but doesn`t capture the American and Western audience in the same way. Dustin Poirier would have been a better asset for the UFC draw-wise. At 170, it was Belal Muhammad, and now it`s Jack Della Maddalena, who has only around 300,000 followers and is just starting out. At 185, it`s Dricus Du Plessis, who isn`t popular. [Khamzat] Chimaev would have been a much bigger name. At 205, it`s Magomed Ankalaev. Not even his mother cares about him [laughs].”
“And in the heavyweight division, it`s Jon Jones. The UFC`s current position is significantly influenced by [Jones and McGregor], but in my opinion, they should strip him of the belt and have Tom Aspinall fight someone else. But if you look at the division, who else is a viable opponent? Ciryl Gane? I think Ciryl Gane is terrible. People will criticize me for saying this, but Ciryl Gane can`t even spell jiu-jitsu, brother. [Alexander] Volkov isn`t actively competing much. Fighters aren`t readily available or willing. So, the UFC is effectively in Jon Jones`s hands. And I personally don`t think the [Aspinall] fight will ever happen. Jon Jones is merely buying time and won`t take it because there`s a substantial chance he would lose to Tom Aspinall. Aspinall represents a new generation of heavyweights. He`s fast, athletic, and for Jones, the risk simply isn`t worth the reward.”
Ultimately, Moicano feels that the focus on a potential Jones vs. Aspinall fight negatively impacts the promotion because, under the current business model and the ESPN deal structure, the UFC isn`t particularly incentivized to invest heavily in exceptionally expensive, large-scale matchups.
“Not only does it create demand [from fans], it gives [Jones] leverage in negotiations,” Moicano explained. “McGregor possesses absurd leverage with the UFC. And people don`t fully grasp that the UFC *manufactured* McGregor`s stardom. You can`t just pick anyone and successfully replicate that recipe; you need a very unique personality to forge someone into a McGregor-level star. But simultaneously, without the formidable UFC promotional machine that can elevate almost anyone, McGregor wouldn`t have become the colossal figure he is today. The UFC must be extremely cautious. They need to keep an eye on the `wolf` so it doesn`t grow too powerful, you know? The wolf needs to remain just small enough to intimidate others, but never turn and bite its owner.”
With increasing site fees for hosting events and an even larger television rights deal potentially on the horizon, the UFC`s long-term financial prospects appear brighter than ever before.
“[The UFC] is generating revenue through every avenue possible now, especially with this potential shift, with ESPN moving on and Netflix or Amazon stepping in,” Moicano said. “There are billions more involved now. They`re talking figures like a billion dollars per year. And honestly, it almost doesn`t matter who is actually fighting. They`re signing fighters to relatively modest contracts, like $8k to show and $8k to win or $10k/$10k via the Contender Series, and immediately pitting them against established fighters. Like Raul Rosas Jr. fighting someone ranked. Like [Caio] Borralho, who came off the Contender Series on a small contract and was already facing tough opposition. You win? They promote that fighter. You lose? They simply bring in someone else. Their operational machine is nearly unbeatable, so they aren`t overly concerned about these individual fighter leverage situations.”
“I think they are tolerating this leverage situation with Jon Jones and McGregor precisely because of the [TV deal],” Moicano stated. “They need impressive numbers to present to Netflix. Who are the biggest draws? It`s clearly McGregor first, then Jon Jones second, and perhaps Alex Pereira third. But they absolutely need these viewership numbers to effectively negotiate the amount [the network] will pay. After the deal is finalized, screw it, brother, they`ve got five more years with money flowing in, and they`ll figure everything else out later.”
Marcus Blakely