Despite McLaren showing superior car speed in the initial races of the 2025 F1 season, Red Bull`s strategic brilliance during Saudi Arabian Grand Prix qualifying has positioned Max Verstappen to potentially take the lead in the world championship standings.
McLaren`s impressive pace in Jeddah practice sessions led many to anticipate a front-row lockout by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. However, Saturday`s qualifying session unfolded dramatically.
Championship leader Norris`s crash early in Q3 relegated him to 10th on the grid, significantly diminishing his chances of maintaining his championship lead over Piastri and Verstappen.
Norris`s incident also shortened Q3, leaving just enough time for drivers to attempt two flying laps. This option was particularly relevant for Verstappen and Mercedes` George Russell, the only drivers with two fresh sets of soft tires remaining.
Piastri had already set a time before the red flag caused by Norris, using one of his new soft tire sets.
Red Bull capitalized on the situation. Verstappen was sent out for an initial run, securing provisional pole and putting pressure on his rivals.
While Russell and then Piastri briefly topped the timesheets, Verstappen, after a quick pit stop for fresh tires, ultimately claimed pole position, edging out Piastri by a mere hundredth of a second.
Verstappen`s ability to secure provisional pole on his first run was particularly notable as it was achieved with enough fuel for two laps.
Verstappen Praises Strategic Decision; Horner Highlights Tight Margins
Verstappen explained that Norris`s crash necessitated a change in approach. He was initially unsure of the best strategy, but his engineer, Gianpiero Lambiase, suggested fueling for two laps. This involved an initial lap on used tires, followed by a pit stop for new tires. Although carrying extra fuel made the first lap slightly slower, Verstappen deemed it the correct decision for car feel and building up to the limit.
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner revealed the strategy left a narrow 25-second window for Verstappen to complete both runs. He emphasized the pressure this put on the team and driver but lauded Verstappen for executing another exceptional qualifying lap.
Horner highlighted Verstappen`s first quick lap with extra fuel as particularly impressive, as it pressured competitors. He also praised Verstappen`s final pole-securing lap as outstanding.
Mercedes` Missed Opportunity?
Russell found himself in a similar position to Verstappen after Norris`s crash, but Mercedes opted for a single run approach in the final moments of qualifying.
Russell mentioned that a two-run strategy was considered, but the decision to proceed with a single run meant he had to drive more cautiously on his attempt.
He explained that while the team discussed starting on new tires and then switching to used ones, he wasn`t privy to all pit wall discussions. He trusted the team`s judgment but noted that with only one lap available, especially on a challenging track like Jeddah, full commitment is crucial.
Russell felt he had to be conservative with tire temperature management at Turn 1, potentially costing him lap time due to slightly overheated tires.
Piastri confirmed McLaren also considered a two-run strategy but decided against it. Having already set a competitive lap time, he felt another initial lap on used tires wasn`t necessary. He weighed the learning benefit against the potential disruption and concluded that sticking to a single final lap on new tires was the right call for McLaren, especially after already completing several consecutive runs on new sets.
Piastri Confident, Verstappen Cautious About Race Pace
Verstappen`s pole position means he could potentially lead the championship if he wins on Sunday, unless Norris finishes second. He currently trails Norris by eight points, with Piastri a further three points behind.
However, Piastri is considered the race favorite. McLaren`s race pace advantage, particularly in managing tire degradation in hot conditions, has been more significant than their qualifying edge.
For Piastri, a strong start to maintain at least second place will be crucial. McLaren might then employ undercut or overcut strategies against Verstappen in what is anticipated to be a one-stop race, assuming no safety car interventions.
Piastri expressed confidence in McLaren`s pace, acknowledging Red Bull and Verstappen appear more competitive in Jeddah than in Bahrain. He noted similarities between Jeddah and Suzuka, suggesting Red Bull`s improved competitiveness might be track-specific. He remains optimistic about McLaren`s chances and highlighted the numerous DRS zones in Jeddah, unlike Suzuka.
Verstappen, a two-time Jeddah winner, is less certain about his race pace compared to Piastri. He admitted his long runs weren`t as strong as McLaren`s drivers in practice. While he will give his best, he`s unsure if it will be enough to hold off Piastri. He acknowledged the car showed improvement since Friday testing, which might help tire management, but remains cautious about their race fight prospects.
Russell Still in Contention
Russell shouldn`t be discounted in the race, as he is only 14 points behind Norris in the championship. Starting third, he likely needs to overtake Piastri at the start to have a realistic shot at a surprise Mercedes victory.
Russell believes the race outcome heavily depends on the Turn 1 start. He and Verstappen agreed that McLaren are the clear favorites with superior pace. If Piastri leads, Russell anticipates a Bahrain-like race scenario. If the starting grid order holds, he predicts a close race until pit stops.
He noted that the medium tire compound is equivalent to last year`s soft, which was rarely used in races. Following concerns about tire hardness in Japan, teams pushed for softer tire options. Russell hopes this change might introduce strategic variety beyond a straightforward one-stop race.
McLaren`s Potential Disappointment
Despite McLaren`s positive public statements, Bernie Collins from Sky Sports F1 suggests Verstappen potentially leading the championship after races where McLaren seemingly had dominance might raise concerns within the team. She noted that Jeddah, like Japan, emphasizes front-row starts. While Piastri achieved this, missing pole position might be felt as a setback, especially considering McLaren`s perceived car advantage. Collins emphasized that when you have the fastest car, capitalizing on opportunities is critical. She acknowledged that anything can happen in the race, requiring readiness to seize chances, but believes Zak Brown`s outward optimism might mask underlying disappointment within McLaren.
Gilbert Pendleton 
Wesley Dunham