Across the nine prior U.S. Opens held at Oakmont, a mere 23 competitors managed to finish below par. Notably, three former champions concluded the tournament with scores above par, and the best winning score over 72 holes at this venue stands at 5 under.
Thanks to its notably deep rough and exceptionally fast greens, this course presents arguably the most challenging test in golf, further complicated by the absence of water hazards and minimal trees.
“It`s going to be incredibly demanding,” stated Jon Rahm, a captain in the LIV Golf League and the 2021 U.S. Open victor. “Many unfortunate outcomes are inevitable. Players will face narrow fairways, unfavorable lies, tough bunkers, and tricky greens. It promises to be a rigorous examination, a truly difficult one. I believe it offers one of the most authentic representations of what the U.S. Open is fundamentally about.”
Will world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler`s recent dominance persist as he aims to secure the third leg of his career Grand Slam? Can Masters champion Rory McIlroy overcome the struggles he`s had off the tee in his last two events? And who are the lesser-known contenders who might be in a position to claim the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday?
World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler has won in three of his past four starts, including his third major at the PGA Championship. Is he the golfer to beat again?
Mark Schlabach: The only scenario I can envision where Scheffler doesn`t factor prominently this week is if his tee shots are erratic. However, that wasn`t an issue in his recent victory at the Memorial. He appears to have resolved whatever difficulties he was experiencing with his driver during the final round of last month`s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Frankly, he`s so exceptionally skilled that it might simply have been a matter of incorrect alignment.
The world`s top-ranked player has claimed victory three times in his last four tournaments, including his third career major title. On average, he has gained an impressive 14 strokes on the field over his previous five appearances, a performance level that will be exceedingly difficult for anyone to match if he repeats it. He leads the tour in virtually every strokes-gained category related to ball striking and driving. He`s also ranked within the top 25 for putting. Yes, challenging him seems like a formidable task.
Paolo Uggetti: Is the sky blue? Absolutely, Scheffler is unequivocally the player everyone in the golf world is trying to catch, and with completely valid reasons. Scheffler currently appears unbeatable. While I believe this course and setup will demand his absolute peak performance — he probably managed his win at Quail Hollow playing closer to his B-game — Scheffler`s form has been steadily climbing back towards his elite level from earlier in 2024 over the past few months.
I concur with Mark that problems with his driver could certainly knock Scheffler out of contention this week, but I`m also particularly interested to see how Scheffler`s putting holds up on Oakmont`s notoriously tricky greens. Scheffler has seemingly neutralized this past weakness, or at least significantly improved it (he`s currently ranked in the top 20 for putting globally this season). Nevertheless, if he struggles to see putts drop early in the tournament, it could potentially lead to frustration and gradually impact other parts of his game. Last year at Pinehurst, the course`s native areas near the fairways seemed to cause Scheffler some trouble with their unpredictability. If you`re looking for a potential vulnerability for Scheffler this week, the greens might be the most likely answer.
What`s going on with Rory McIlroy, and do you think he can find his game at Oakmont?
Schlabach: It`s clear that McIlroy hasn`t felt comfortable off the tee since the driver he used to win the Masters was deemed non-conforming during testing at the PGA Championship. He wasn`t a significant factor at Quail Hollow, a venue where he has previously won four times, because he couldn`t keep his drives in the short grass.
McIlroy experimented with a different iteration of the new TaylorMade Qi35 driver at last week`s RBC Canadian Open, and his results were even less favorable. He opted for a shorter shaft (44 inches) attempting to gain better control of the ball, but he managed to hit only 42% of the fairways. In the second round, when he shot an 8-over 78, he found just four fairways. That kind of driving performance is a recipe for disaster at Oakmont.
He is using yet another different TaylorMade driver this week, and he feels more optimistic about his current situation.
While McIlroy is likely to eventually resolve his issues off the tee, I am more concerned about his mental state and motivation following his career Grand Slam completion at the Masters. He has openly discussed finding it harder to spend three or four hours practicing on the range. He has also mentioned that no matter how many more tournaments he wins on the PGA Tour, none will compare to his victory at Augusta National Golf Club.
“You visualize making the final putt at the Masters, but you don`t really consider what comes afterward,” McIlroy commented on Tuesday. “I think I`ve historically been a player who struggles after a significant win, after securing any tournament. I always find it difficult to arrive the following week with full motivation because you`ve just achieved something major, and you want to enjoy that accomplishment and savor the fact that you`ve reached a long-term objective.”
“Given that I`ve been pursuing a particular goal for nearly a decade and a half, I think I`m entitled to a brief period of relaxation. However, here at Oakmont, I certainly cannot afford to relax this week.”
My feeling is that it will take a few more weeks, at minimum, before we witness Rory performing at his absolute best again.
Paolo Uggetti: Doesn`t that perfectly encapsulate golf? One moment, McIlroy is at the pinnacle of the sport, having won three events this season, including the Masters to finalize his Grand Slam. The prevailing thought was that this accomplishment would liberate him, allowing him to maintain a high level of play throughout the remainder of the year. But things change quickly.
The unpredictable nature of the sport affects even the most elite players. Whether it`s a particular feel in the swing, a putting stroke, or in McIlroy`s case, a new driver, even a minor element going astray can disrupt a strong run of form. It appears McIlroy is currently navigating such a challenge.
On Tuesday, McIlroy played 18 holes early in the day and seemed to revert to using the model and specifications of the driver he employed at the Masters, not the very newest TaylorMade driver. Perhaps this change will help him regain the level of play he demonstrated at Augusta. However, while he found a way to win there despite not hitting most fairways, Oakmont will not be nearly as forgiving of inaccurate driving.
What do you expect from defending champ Bryson DeChambeau this week?
Schlabach: I anticipate he will be firmly in contention once more. Without sounding repetitive, DeChambeau will also need to demonstrate improved accuracy off the tee compared to his performance a year ago.
At Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina last year, DeChambeau hit only about half of the fairways (57%). He cannot afford to drive that erratically at Oakmont. He compensated for his lack of driving accuracy by hitting greens consistently and putting exceptionally well to secure his second U.S. Open title. DeChambeau`s putting prowess is one of the main reasons I predict he`ll be a contender this week.
Despite his incredible length off the tee, DeChambeau is also among the best putters on tour, which will be a significant advantage on Oakmont`s notoriously difficult greens.
Paolo Uggetti: Bryson DeChambeau has been, rather quietly, the most consistent performer in major championships over the last two years, second only to Scottie Scheffler. In his most recent nine major starts, he has recorded six finishes within the top six, including two runner-up finishes and a victory. I would be genuinely surprised if he doesn`t contend at Oakmont, as this course provides the kind of challenge that suits his playing style.
That said, I am particularly interested in observing the state of DeChambeau`s approach game, which was arguably what prevented him from winning at Augusta and Quail Hollow. During the Masters, DeChambeau hit only 60% of greens in regulation for the week, and at the PGA Championship, he lost nearly half a stroke to the field on his approach shots.
While Oakmont`s length and punishing rough undoubtedly favor a powerful hitter like DeChambeau, if his approach game hasn`t improved (he is using new irons this week), it could result in another strong showing but ultimately a near miss for the defending champion.
How will Oakmont play this week?
Schlabach: I would be genuinely disappointed if it wasn`t anything less than a significant challenge. Each of the past six U.S. Open winners posted a score of 6 under or better, with their combined scores totaling 47 under par. This is simply not how the U.S. Open is traditionally meant to unfold.
“I don`t think spectators tune in to watch players simply hit a 200-yard shot onto the green,” commented Xander Schauffele, a two-time major champion. “I believe they watch the U.S. Open to witness players struggling, perhaps shooting 8 over par, and experiencing difficulties. That element of suffering is part of the viewing enjoyment.”
I walked the course with Scheffler and Gary Woodland on Monday. The USGA has indicated the rough will be 5 inches deep, and it is currently dense and lush. It was quite wet earlier in the week, but clear weather is predicted through Friday. The warmer temperatures should significantly dry out the course.
I observed the grounds crew working on the rough on the 18th hole earlier in the week. I initially thought they were mowing it with push mowers, but I`m quite sure they were actually just fluffing it up and assisting in drying it out.
“It simply demands patience and rigorous discipline,” stated Justin Thomas. “If you become even slightly careless, whether it`s on a drive, a wedge shot, a chip, or a putt, you can look quite foolish very quickly, especially at a venue like this.”
If the weather predictions hold true, the greens will firm up and become exceptionally quick, far faster than most greens the players have encountered this season, with the possible exception of Augusta National.
“A winning score close to par is what they generally aim for here,” Schauffele added regarding the potential winning score. “The club members deeply value their course, and they are definitely hoping for a winning score over par. I know what outcome they are rooting for.”
Paolo Uggetti: I`m going to take a slightly different perspective on this. While I do anticipate Oakmont will be demanding – simply walking the extensive property and observing the thick grass confirms that the winner will have needed to play exceptional golf all week – I believe we sometimes underestimate both the incredible skill level of these athletes and the advancements in technology they utilize, even compared to just 2016.
The modern game, coupled with modern drivers and an increased emphasis on skill, speed, and physical conditioning from a younger age, has produced players like DeChambeau, McIlroy, and several talented amateurs in the field this year who can drive the ball immense distances. Oakmont is far more complex than a straightforward test of pure power; its subtleties will expose those who are not precise enough. However, the depth of talent in the game today, and the USGA`s evolution as a governing body, makes an over-par winning score seem highly unlikely.
Oakmont will certainly play tough, but it won`t be an insurmountable challenge. Not for golfers of this caliber.
Give us one dark horse to contend/win this week?
Schlabach: Harris English is coming off his best finish in a major championship and likely represents good value at his current odds of 100-1. He has recorded top-12 finishes in his last four significant events: tying for 12th at the Masters, 10th at the Truist Championship, finishing second at the PGA Championship, and tying for 12th at the Memorial. He possesses a solid history in the U.S. Open, with three top-eight finishes in his last five starts. He tends to keep the ball in the fairway, hits a sufficient number of greens, and is regarded as one of the best putters available.
Paolo Uggetti: Does Keegan Bradley fit the description of a dark horse? His current odds to win this week are 90-1, but it wouldn`t entirely surprise me to see him positioned near the top of the leaderboard heading into the weekend. The current U.S. Ryder Cup captain ranks within the top 15 for course suitability according to Data Golf, largely due to his accuracy off the tee. This season, he is ranked in the top 20 globally for strokes gained off the tee, while also being in the top 15 for strokes gained: approach shots. This combination appears to be a promising recipe for making a strong showing at Oakmont this week and could significantly fuel discussions about whether Bradley should serve as a playing captain at Bethpage.
Marcus Blakely