The 2025 PGA Championship, the second major event of the golf season, is set to tee off on Thursday at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. Can Rory McIlroy continue his hot streak and win a second straight major? Will Scottie Scheffler add another major title to his collection? What kind of performance can we anticipate from Bryson DeChambeau and other LIV Golf players?
From leading contenders and dark horses to course expectations and beyond, here are six key narratives to monitor this week at the PGA Championship.
Who is the favorite: world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler or Masters champion Rory McIlroy?
Mark Schlabach: While Scottie Scheffler is listed as the slight favorite by oddsmakers and recently secured his first victory of the 2025 season, one could reasonably argue that Rory McIlroy is currently the top golfer globally. He has already claimed three tour titles this year, each against highly competitive fields, including wins at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Players Championship, and the Masters, where he achieved the rare feat of completing the career Grand Slam.
McIlroy`s recent strong performances and his exceptional record at Quail Hollow Club, where he boasts four wins and a runner-up finish, position him as the player to beat this week. Scheffler, in contrast, has not participated in a stroke-play event here, and his only prior appearance at Quail Hollow during the 2022 Presidents Cup was not particularly noteworthy. He posted a 0-3-1 record, contributing merely half a point to the U.S. team`s victory over the International squad.
Paolo Uggetti: I concur with Mark – Rory is likely the favorite this week, and nobody arrives in better form. It`s remarkable, however, how quickly the dynamics at the top of the game can shift. Scheffler has maintained impressive consistency this season, but by securing only one win and not replicating his dominant pace from the previous year, he has essentially created an opportunity for McIlroy to reclaim the perception of being the world`s best player. It wouldn`t be surprising if, by Sunday, both players find themselves in contention for another major trophy, potentially facing off against each other.
Beyond Scottie and Rory, who is your pick this week?
Schlabach: Justin Thomas is showcasing some of the finest golf of his career and previously won the PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow in 2017. JT ended a nearly three-year winless drought on tour by triumphing at the RBC Heritage in a playoff on April 20. He finished second at the Valspar Championship (a tournament he arguably should have won, but faltered with bogeys on the final three holes, losing by one stroke to Viktor Hovland) and tied for second at last week`s Truist Championship, two strokes behind winner Sepp Straka.
Thomas has a strong track record at Quail Hollow, finishing within the top 26 in five of his six starts. He ranks fifth in strokes gained: tee to green (1.227), fifth in approach (.896), and 20th in putting (.432).
Uggetti: So, you`re telling me this is one of the longest courses ever used in professional golf, it features challenging rough, and recent rain means driving distance will be crucial, and you`re *not* picking Bryson DeChambeau? Quail Hollow is set to favor long hitters this year, and few are hitting it better than DeChambeau. Data Golf statistics show DeChambeau gaining over two strokes with his driver, a full stroke ahead of the next best player in this category. But it`s not just his driving; DeChambeau has significantly improved other aspects of his game recently – he has recorded five top-10 finishes in the last nine majors. If he can replicate his performance from Valhalla last year, he will undoubtedly be a major factor.
What are your expectations for Xander Schauffele (defending champ) this week?
Schlabach: After being sidelined for over two months due to a painful rib injury, Xander Schauffele`s game is progressively improving. He has secured four consecutive strong finishes, including tying for eighth at the Masters and tying for 11th at the Truist Championship.
While he ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach (.821), his performance off the tee (157th, -.320), around the green (135th, -.155), and putting (140th, -.244) ranks lower. This is likely due more to a lack of competitive rounds than a fundamental issue. The key point is: Schauffele has won two of the last four majors and finished in the top 10 in seven of the last nine. Additionally, he was the runner-up in his last two appearances at Quail Hollow.
Uggetti: Schauffele remains a bit of a mystery figure in the sport currently. His baseline performance is consistently high; even when not in peak midseason form, he still manages to land in the top 20. His worst finish in his last four tournaments was a tie for 18th at the RBC Heritage, and he tied for 11th last week. Honestly, I`m unsure what to expect from Schauffele at Quail Hollow this week, but the fact that the defending champion (and two-time major winner) is somewhat flying under the radar right now is quite telling.
Which LIV golfers will you be following most closely this week?
Schlabach: Distance off the tee will be extremely important at Quail Hollow Club, so how could you not anticipate Bryson DeChambeau being in contention? He finished second at last year`s PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club, narrowly losing to Xander Schauffele by one shot. He held an early lead in the final round of the Masters before shooting a 3-over 75 and dropping back to a tie for fifth place. Nobody hits the ball as far as DeChambeau off the tee, and if his iron play is sharper than it was at Augusta National, I wouldn`t be surprised to see him hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.
Patrick Reed secured a solo third-place finish at the Masters and also has a solid history at Quail Hollow.
Paolo Uggetti: Until he achieves a top-10 finish at a major, my answer will continue to be Joaquín Niemann. It`s becoming quite noticeable that a player who consistently wins on the LIV Tour struggles to make a significant impact when competing against the world`s elite players at major championships. Niemann clearly possesses the game to win multiple majors, and Data Golf ranks him among the top 10 players globally right now. So, why hasn`t this translated into success during the four biggest weeks of the year? This question continues to linger over Niemann`s career, and this week presents another opportunity for him to change that narrative.
Any under-the-radar players to keep an eye on this week?
Schlabach: With Sepp Straka recently winning his second event of the season at the Truist Championship, former University of Georgia golfers have now claimed five victories across 22 PGA Tour events this season.
Another former Bulldog, Keith Mitchell, has demonstrated improved form after struggling significantly at the end of 2024. Mitchell has achieved five consecutive top-25 finishes, including tying for second at the Corales Puntacana and seventh at the Truist Championship. Mitchell is ranked 11th on tour in driving distance (313.3 yards) and 21st in strokes gained: tee to green (.868). He has two career top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow.
Canada`s Taylor Pendrith hasn`t had the best results in recent weeks, but he had three top-10 finishes earlier this season. He is another player known for hitting the ball a long way off the tee (307.9 yards) and hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation (70.6%). His play around and on the greens hasn`t been stellar, but if his putter performs well this week, he could potentially contend.
Uggetti: Here`s a two-for-one suggestion: pay attention to the Højgaard twins, Nicolai and Rasmus. Both possess the necessary length for this course and could quietly make some noise this week. Regarding other young talents to watch, I would include Michael Thorbjornsen; he has secured two top-5 finishes this season and has been playing very solid golf lately.
Finally, having observed Akshay Bhatia at the Players Championship, it`s evident he has the game capable of winning a major. Perhaps at this stage of his career, where his game is strong but still developing, a venue like Quail Hollow could be the ideal setting for a breakthrough performance.
How is Quail Hollow expected to play this week?
Schlabach: Quail Hollow is one of the longest courses on tour, measuring 7,626 yards. This distance makes it the fourth longest in PGA Championship history and the longest for a par-71 course. It is likely to play even longer due to the significant rain the course received on Monday. Additional precipitation is predicted through Wednesday. If this forecast holds true, there will likely be minimal fairway roll, placing an even greater emphasis on driving distance and proficiency with long irons.
Contending players will also need a strong short game, as they are anticipated to miss a considerable number of greens. According to ESPN Research, eight greens were hit successfully less than 50% of the time during the 2017 PGA Championship; the opening hole was hit in regulation only 33% of the time.
Golfers will need to navigate the par 3s successfully (three of the four exceed 200 yards), score well on the par 5s, and survive the notoriously difficult final three holes, known as the `Green Mile.` In 2017, there were more double bogeys or worse recorded (99) than birdies or better (88) on these finishing holes, according to ESPN Research.
Marcus Blakely