Spanish GP: Can McLaren Maintain Their Championship Lead Over Max Verstappen Amidst Rule Changes?

Just three points separate Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris after the first third of the 2025 Formula 1 season, yet Max Verstappen remains a close contender against the McLaren duo.

As the grid heads into this weekend`s Spanish Grand Prix, Piastri holds a three-point advantage over Norris, with Verstappen trailing the Australian by 25 points.

Historically, a car that performs well at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is expected to be fast on most circuits. However, a new technical regulation focusing on flexible wings adds an element of uncertainty regarding McLaren`s current pace advantage and whether they can sustain it.

In the Constructors` Championship, McLaren boasts a significant lead, sitting 152 points ahead of Mercedes and 156 points clear of Red Bull.

The closely matched performance of their drivers, Norris and Piastri, means they have taken points away from each other in the Drivers` Championship. In contrast, Verstappen hasn`t faced comparable competition from his teammate, enabling him to maximize his individual results more effectively.

While McLaren currently appears to have a slight pace advantage over the competition, this situation could quickly change as rivals introduce upgrades and deepen their understanding of their cars.

This weekend in Spain, a new load test will be implemented for front wings. Red Bull boss Christian Horner has stated that this technical change is expected to have an `impact`.

It remains to be seen if this new rule will negatively affect McLaren. If it does, and Verstappen becomes a consistent threat for wins based on outright pace, the question arises: will Zak Brown and Andrea Stella regret not having designated a number one driver?

The Rationale Against a Number One Driver

Speaking on The F1 Show, Sky Sports F1`s David Croft argued that McLaren`s substantial lead in the Constructors` standings renders the debate about needing a primary and secondary driver irrelevant.

Croft quoted McLaren`s position: “they will pursue the best interests of the team while preserving the interest of the drivers.” He emphasized that racing enthusiasts prefer genuine competition without team orders or drivers being asked to sacrifice their race for a teammate.

“They are accumulating the necessary points for the constructors` and allowing the drivers to compete fiercely,” Croft said. “We are set for an incredible season.

“The team`s objective is to win the Constructors` Championship, right? They are not going to disadvantage one driver when both are capable of challenging for the Drivers` Championship, especially while they are comfortably winning the Constructors`. There`s no advantage in doing so, as it would only accelerate the departure of either Lando or Oscar.”

The Scenario If Verstappen Closes the Gap

Verstappen has secured victories in two of the eight F1 races so far, at Suzuka and Imola. Only at the latter circuit did Red Bull arguably have a faster car than McLaren.

Sky Sports F1`s Simon Lazenby partially disagreed with Croft, suggesting that McLaren might need to back the leading driver in the standings if Verstappen remains a close challenger later in the season.

“If it comes down to it, the drivers` [title] is the one that they prioritize now,” Lazenby commented.

“Suppose one driver builds a 25 or 30-point lead, but Max is right behind them. Wouldn`t they then focus all their efforts on the driver leading the championship? Wouldn`t they strategically use the second driver as a buffer, perhaps similar to tactics seen at the Monaco Grand Prix?”

Sky Sports F1`s Bernie Collins added: “If they reach a point where they are colliding and risking the Constructors` Championship as a result, that`s when they`ll decide `enough is enough`.”

“For now, as long as they are competing cleanly and both contributing significantly to the Constructors` Championship points total, there will come a point where that championship is mathematically secured, and at that stage, there`s even less reason to issue team orders to hold position.”

“Zak wants it all. He aims for a one-two finish in the drivers` standings and to win the constructors` title. To achieve that, he will strive to keep both his drivers as content and competitive as possible.”

Sky Sports F1`s Spanish Grand Prix Schedule