This year`s Wimbledon singles finals present a compelling pattern, suggesting that success on the hallowed grass courts of the All England Club might be closely tied to prior performance during the brief grass-court season. An analysis of the four finalists reveals that a significant majority had already navigated their way to the decisive stage of other grass tournaments in the weeks leading up to the sport`s most prestigious event.
Specifically, three out of the four players set to compete for the singles titles this year had already reached a final on the green surface before arriving in SW19. This statistic highlights the potential value of competitive match play and adaptation time on grass ahead of the major championship.
On the women`s side, both finalists fit this intriguing pattern. Rising star Amanda Anisimova demonstrated strong early form by reaching the final of the WTA 500 event held at Queen`s Club, narrowly missing out on the title. Similarly, world number one Iga Świątek, who has historically found grass her most challenging surface, proved her rapid adaptation by making it to the final of the WTA 500 tournament in Bad Homburg. These deep runs in preparatory events were clear indicators that both players were hitting their stride just in time for Wimbledon.
The men`s final features a similar narrative for one of the competitors. Carlos Alcaraz arrived at Wimbledon having already claimed a major grass-court trophy, winning the prestigious Cinch Championships at Queen`s Club. This triumph solidified his status not just as a contender, but as a proven champion on grass this season. However, the other finalist on the men`s side provides a notable exception to this trend, not having reached a final in any grass-court warm-up event during the current season.
Why might achieving success in preceding grass tournaments serve as such a strong precursor to reaching the Wimbledon final? The grass surface is unique, demanding specific footwork, requiring adjustments for lower and faster bounces, and rewarding aggressive play. Engaging in competitive matches, especially reaching the high-pressure environment of a final, provides invaluable practical experience. It allows players to fine-tune their game, adapt their movement patterns, and build crucial confidence on a surface that is notoriously difficult to master. It represents a real-world testing ground that practice sessions alone cannot fully replicate.
While the one exception in the men`s final demonstrates that alternative pathways to success certainly exist, a strong performance culminating in a final appearance during the relatively short grass season appears to have been a highly reliable indicator of potential success at the All England Club this year. It seems, for many, finding the winning formula for Wimbledon in 2024 involved mastering the terrain in the tournaments that paved the way.
Marcus Blakely 
Gilbert Pendleton