Belal Muhammad`s initial title defense is set to potentially influence the UFC`s future plans significantly. While acknowledging Muhammad`s important moment, it`s understandable that attention is partly shifting beyond his welterweight championship bout against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315. The broader implications for potential future matchups, particularly involving major names, are widely discussed.
Speculation about massive potential fights, such as those possibly involving Islam Makhachev or Ilia Topuria, has somewhat overshadowed Della Maddalena`s challenge. Although Della Maddalena is a deserving contender, the consensus is that Shavkat Rakhmonov is the true top contender at 170 pounds. A fight between Muhammad and the undefeated Rakhmonov has been anticipated twice, but failed to materialize due to fighter issues (Muhammad`s foot infection at UFC 310, Rakhmonov`s injury for UFC 315).
This setup leaves us anticipating a compelling line of potential challengers for Muhammad if he retains the title, a significant opportunity for Della Maddalena if he achieves an upset victory, and potentially even a backup plan for someone like Ilia Topuria following his decision to vacate his featherweight belt earlier this year to pursue a second undisputed title.
Beyond the main event, the UFC 315 main card features several other intriguing matchups. Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko finds herself in the unusual position of an underdog as she aims to hand Manon Fiorot her first UFC defeat. Jose Aldo continues his remarkable career path, facing the surging Aiemann Zahabi. Alexa Grasso competes against Natalia Silva in a pivotal flyweight contender showdown, and Benoit Saint Denis looks to bounce back from recent losses against late replacement opponent Kyle Prepolec.
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena is an exciting challenger and a skilled fighter enjoying good form. He possesses the ability to finish the fight with his striking.
However, his pathway to victory fundamentally relies on keeping the fight standing, and it is difficult to envision how he can consistently prevent Belal Muhammad from initiating grappling exchanges.
Unless Belal Muhammad attempts to primarily showcase his striking (which is highly unlikely given his established approach), the predicted scenario is straightforward: Muhammad will use just enough striking to close the distance, then seek to secure takedowns, clinch against the fence, or employ body locks – essentially doing everything necessary to bring Della Maddalena to the ground. Despite Della Maddalena`s resistance, a takedown seems inevitable at some point in the fight.
While this prediction may seem predictable, Della Maddalena has not demonstrated a consistent ability to stop takedowns, even in fights he has won. If he struggles to remain upright against opponents like Bassil Hafez, preventing Muhammad from keeping him grounded for the full 25 minutes appears to be a monumental task. Even considering that five rounds might increase Della Maddalena`s chance for a knockout blow, he has never fought beyond three rounds, making his endurance in the later championship rounds uncertain.
The expectation is that Muhammad will successfully defend his title. This outcome would maintain the status quo for potential future matchups and likely set the stage for a highly anticipated fight involving Muhammad down the line.
Prediction: Muhammad
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Significant betting money has come in on Valentina Shevchenko throughout the week, which aligns with the view that her underdog status in this fight was initially surprising. She is, after all, a dominant force in the sport.
Although she is older, and time impacts every fighter, Shevchenko`s success has historically relied less on pure athleticism and more on her comprehensive skill set, strategic intelligence, and extensive experience – attributes that tend to hold up better with age. Her strategic execution, such as the clear game plan seen in her third fight against Alexa Grasso, demonstrates her intelligence as a fighter.
Manon Fiorot undoubtedly presents significant challenges. She holds a size advantage over the champion, meaning Shevchenko won`t easily rely on simply overpowering her. If Shevchenko attempts one of her signature throws, she must execute it perfectly, or Fiorot could end up in a dominant top position, ready to inflict damage. Fiorot is also expected to be fearless in striking exchanges, despite Shevchenko`s renowned background. Fiorot`s style is effective, characterized by forward pressure with combinations and a powerful left hand. There is a definite possibility of Fiorot landing an early impactful strike that could change the fight`s dynamic.
The prediction, however, favors Shevchenko delivering another masterclass performance, solidifying her legacy as arguably the greatest female fighter in MMA history.
Prediction: Shevchenko
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Regarding the weight situation: what was initially reported as a potential weight miss for Jose Aldo was clarified moments before he stepped onto the scale – his fight against Aiemann Zahabi was officially changed to a featherweight bout. Aldo weighed in at 143 pounds, with Zahabi at 142.
Aldo having a challenging weight cut is not new for the Brazilian legend, so betting against him solely based on his appearance at the weigh-ins would be risky. It`s expected that a rehydrated Aldo will be in competitive form, perhaps as close to his prime as possible at 38 years old. Few fighters globally are willing to stand and trade strikes with Aldo, with only the absolute best having out-duelled him on the feet throughout his career.
Aiemann Zahabi is a sharp and well-prepared fighter, but does he possess the technical striking prowess required to defeat Aldo in a stand-up battle? Very few strikers (Petr Yan being a notable example) have managed to match Aldo`s combination of aggression and adaptability. Therefore, even the well-coached Zahabi will likely struggle to go shot-for-shot with him. It`s also highly improbable he could secure a dominant grappling victory akin to certain past fights involving other athletes.
The matchmaking for Aldo continues to place him against current contenders rather than establishing a dedicated legends circuit, yet he remains a formidable opponent for the division`s active fighters.
The prediction is an Aldo victory, likely by decision.
Prediction: Aldo
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
The fight between Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva stands out as the most challenging main card bout to predict.
To be direct, Grasso`s performance in her trilogy fight against Shevchenko was not her best. Whether this was due to Shevchenko being the vastly superior fighter, Grasso`s vulnerability to takedowns, or simply having an off-night at a critical moment, it`s understandable that the betting odds reflect Silva as potentially stepping over Grasso on her path towards a title opportunity.
“Natty Ice” Silva is known for her formidable stand-up skills. While sharp boxing has been a hallmark of Grasso`s career, it is difficult to imagine her matching Silva`s volume and accuracy in striking exchanges. Grasso may look to utilize offensive wrestling to disrupt Silva`s rhythm, but securing a win primarily through this method seems unlikely, potentially only delaying the inevitable outcome on the feet.
Silva has consistently risen to the occasion with each step up in competition. This fight represents her most significant challenge yet, but there is little reason to expect her to falter now. The prediction is for Silva to secure the victory, earning her position as a top contender awaiting a title shot.
Prediction: Silva
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
While an upset victory for Kyle Prepolec is not heavily predicted, he is expected to make Benoit Saint Denis work hard for the win.
It was commendable to see Prepolec receive a call on short notice to replace an injured opponent and even participate in pre-fight media. It`s clear he is not just grateful for a second chance in the UFC, but genuinely believes he can win this fight.
Benoit Saint Denis is currently at a pivotal point in his career. After achieving five consecutive finishes, he was viewed as a potential dark horse contender in the lightweight division. However, subsequent losses, first in a competitive bout against Dustin Poirier and then a humbling defeat to Renato Moicano, have raised questions. Is he still a developing prospect relatively early in his professional career, or has his growth been significantly hindered? This fight offers insights, even if it wasn`t the matchup fans most desired.
Despite these questions, the prediction favors Saint Denis securing the win. Prepolec is known for his durability and is incredibly difficult to finish, and he may come out aggressively early to surprise Saint Denis. However, the overall talent disparity is seen as too large for Prepolec to secure a straightforward victory. The expectation is for Saint Denis to prevail in what could potentially be a high-paced, exciting fight.
Prediction: Saint Denis
Marcus Blakely