Ilia Topuria is poised for a significant challenge at International Fight Week. This Saturday, Topuria is moving up to the 155-pound division to face Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight championship in the main event of UFC 317. Should he be victorious, Topuria will join an elite group as only the 10th fighter in UFC history to secure titles in two weight categories, a list that includes notable names such as Alex Pereira, Amanda Nunes, and Randy Couture.
Simultaneously, Oliveira is aiming to achieve his own historical milestone this Saturday, attempting to become the first fighter ever to reclaim and hold the lightweight title for a second reign. The main event promises to be a superfight with incredibly high stakes. Let`s delve into how each competitor might forge their path to victory this weekend.
Ilia Topuria`s Path to Victory
It might sound unusual to call a top pound-for-pound fighter and the 2024 Fighter of the Year a “prospect,” but at just 28 years old, Ilia Topuria fits the description. He`s only now entering what are typically considered a fighter`s prime years, suggesting that the already incredible level we`ve seen is likely just the starting point for his future capabilities. This thought should certainly concern the rest of the lightweight division.
Topuria`s fighting style is fundamentally built upon sharp boxing and relentless pressure. While known for his grappling prowess, he`s rarely needed to showcase it, instead relying on backing opponents up and landing powerful shots. He possesses significant knockout power that is expected to carry up to the lightweight division, complemented by brutal body attacks. His game is further enhanced by excellent footwork and solid defensive techniques.
Against Charles Oliveira, these skills might be precisely what he needs. Oliveira has historically been susceptible to being hit on the feet, often relying on his dangerous jiu-jitsu from guard to recover after taking damage. While his ground game remains a threat, Topuria`s focus on body shots presents a particularly difficult challenge. Oliveira has shown vulnerability to targeted body attacks throughout his career. If Topuria can implement his signature strategy – consistently pressuring Oliveira, alternating attacks between the body and head – it aligns very well with the featherweight champion`s strengths.
Oliveira is known for his durability, so Topuria may not finish him with the initial clean shots. However, by maintaining consistent pressure and relentless offense, Topuria should eventually be able to overwhelm the former lightweight champion.
Charles Oliveira`s Path to Victory
As indicated, this is by no means an easy matchup for Charles Oliveira. In fact, stylistically, it might be one of the most challenging fights for him in the lightweight division, perhaps second only to Islam Makhachev. But a difficult fight doesn`t mean it`s impossible to win.
Oliveira has several factors working in his favor this Saturday, most notably his size. While Oliveira did compete at featherweight earlier in his career, it`s been many years since he made the 145-pound limit, and he is now a significantly larger athlete. He is a big lightweight, and the only time we`ve seen Topuria compete at 155 pounds, he appeared to struggle somewhat with the size and reach of Jai Herbert. With all due respect to Herbert, Charles Oliveira represents a considerably higher level of opposition.
As the naturally bigger man, Oliveira would be wise to utilize this advantage, particularly in the clinch rather than at range. Charles is an underrated clinch fighter, and his inherent size advantage should provide him with ample opportunities to score points and control exchanges in tie-ups. Topuria has not frequently been tested in the clinch, so Oliveira should actively look to exploit this area early.
Another potential advantage for Oliveira lies in his kicking game. Topuria hasn`t faced many dedicated kickers in his career, yet opponents like Alexander Volkanovski and Josh Emmett effectively used body kicks against him. Oliveira, being a superior kicker to both, should aim to do the same. Kicks not only score points but can also force Topuria to keep his hands lower to defend, making him less likely to throw punches.
Perhaps even more crucial than size or kicks is the battle for footwork control. While Oliveira might be showing signs of slowing down, he absolutely cannot afford to retreat in this fight. Topuria is an extremely dangerous force when moving forward. If Oliveira starts giving ground and fighting off his back foot, the fight will likely already be lost.
Prediction
There are lingering questions about this matchup, but they might ultimately be insignificant. If Oliveira were younger, his chances of pulling off the upset would seem much stronger. The stylistic challenge is significant, but a younger Oliveira could lean more heavily on his own advantages. However, Oliveira appears to be past his absolute prime, and the speed difference in this fight is likely to be substantial. Ilia will probably need to knock him down multiple times to secure the finish, but he should have the tools to achieve that.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria defeats Charles Oliveira by TKO (punches) at 2:21 of Round 2.
Marcus Blakely