UFC Des Moines Fight Predictions

Cory Sandhagen is weary of being the fighter just outside the title picture.

His four UFC defeats have come against Aljamain Sterling, T.J. Dillashaw, Petr Yan, and Umar Nurmagomedov. Notably, every fighter who defeated Sandhagen subsequently challenged for the bantamweight championship in their very next bout. This is a frustrating pattern. While Sandhagen is widely recognized as one of the top bantamweights globally, he still needs to secure a victory that unequivocally proves his readiness for a title shot.

This backdrop adds significant pressure for his headline bout at UFC Des Moines this Saturday against two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo has transitioned successfully to the bantamweight division, winning his first three fights before a decision loss to Petr Yan. Despite Sandhagen`s notable size advantage, Figueiredo remains a formidable challenge, and a loss here would be a major setback.

Main Card Predictions

Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

The narrative for Cory Sandhagen`s title aspirations remains alive. I predict “The Sandman” will secure the win here and stay firmly on the cusp of that elusive title shot. He possesses an excellent stylistic matchup against Deiveson Figueiredo. Sandhagen holds a significant size advantage, is capable of handling Figueiredo in the striking exchanges, and has the takedown defense necessary to neutralize Figueiredo should the former flyweight king attempt a grappling-focused strategy.

However, Sandhagen isn`t without potential concerns. Figueiredo`s power has carried up to the bantamweight division, and it`s conceivable, though unlikely, that he could become the first fighter to knock Sandhagen out. Figueiredo is also a more universally well-rounded fighter, demonstrated by his classic four-fight series with Brandon Moreno that explored every facet of MMA.

Sandhagen is favored for solid reasons, extending beyond just his elite standup skills. It`s possible he could initiate grappling exchanges, utilizing his sheer size to take Figueiredo down and control him on the mat. There`s a straightforward path to victory for Sandhagen; he simply needs to execute the game plan.

Prediction: Sandhagen by Decision

Pick: Sandhagen

Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal

Oh boy, this contest has the potential to be quite messy. Initially, I was intrigued by this booking, and after further consideration, I find it even more compelling. Bo Nickal successfully navigated the challenge presented by Paul Craig, which was a notable step up in opposition, yet his performance wasn`t particularly thrilling and raised questions about his current developmental trajectory. Reinier de Ridder, a two-division champion from ONE Championship, represents Nickal`s eighth professional opponent and someone who could potentially cause him significant trouble.

Bo Nickal is arguably one of the most gifted athletes in the sport today, giving him an edge against almost any middleweight opponent. This includes de Ridder, a highly skilled grappler and intelligent fighter whom Nickal should theoretically be able to take down whenever he pleases. Nickal is a three-time national wrestling champion. Why doesn`t he simply stick to this strength? Keep the pure martial arts separate, Bo!

Engaging in ground exchanges with the submission-minded de Ridder might not be the wisest strategy, but if Nickal aims to rebuild some momentum, it would be beneficial to see him leverage the discipline he`s better at than almost anyone else on the planet. Sure, feel free to mix in some striking, that`s fine. But please, wrestle a bit this time.

I`m mentally prepared for anything this fight might deliver. It could be a typical, grinding middleweight affair. Nickal could dominate de Ridder. Or, de Ridder could outsmart Nickal and secure a submission victory. Whatever happens, in a way, I win as a viewer.

Pick: Nickal

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Thank you for this age-appropriate matchmaking! Both Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez celebrated their 38th birthdays late last year, and honestly, I have no desire to see them used as stepping stones for the next wave of welterweight contenders. Let`s acknowledge their hard work and careers with respectful matchups.

Even better, both fighters primarily prefer to stand and strike, making this matchup an ideal stylistic fit for them. Their kickboxing styles are quite similar, promising a competitive and professional three-round battle. Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby delivered an exciting fight last week, and Ponzinibbio and Rodriguez have the potential to offer similar levels of entertainment, perhaps without a sudden, dramatic finish.

While this might seem harsh, in my assessment, Daniel Rodriguez appears to have declined more in recent years, despite having significantly less cage time than Ponzinibbio. Neither fighter is known for an exceptionally high-paced style, but Ponzinibbio`s more diverse offensive toolkit seems to have held up better over time.

Prediction: Ponzinibbio by Decision

Pick: Ponzinibbio

Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos

One has to wonder where Montel Jackson`s career would be if he competed more often than just once a year. “Quik” is currently on a five-fight winning streak, a run only surpassed in the bantamweight division by Mario Bautista (7) and Merab Dvalishvili (11). Despite this impressive streak, his inactivity means many might not be aware of it. He is making his 2025 debut after fighting only once in 2024, 2023, and 2022. And he is a truly excellent fighter! It`s something worth considering.

Given the rapid pace of movement in this division, it wouldn`t be surprising if a fighter with less UFC tenure, like Daniel Marcos, were to potentially bypass him in the rankings. Marcos is a skilled striker possessing serious knockout power in his right hand and could potentially end the fight quickly if Jackson makes a critical error. Fortunately for Jackson, he holds advantages in size and speed, in addition to having faced a higher level of competition.

Marcos is undefeated, but he has encountered some precarious situations in his recent fights and managed to escape. He is unlikely to be so fortunate against Jackson, who I predict will find Marcos` chin and secure a finish in the first or second round.

Pick: Jackson

Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey

As much as I appreciate the depth of the men`s bantamweight division, I`ve questioned the placement of this bout on the main card due to the relative lack of recognition for both Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey.

Surely, the fight between former women`s bantamweight champion Miesha Tate and Yana Santos is more deserving of a spot on the latter half of the broadcast? Or perhaps a matchup between ranked strawweights like Marina Rodriguez and Gillian Robertson? Even an obligatory heavyweight clash, such as Thomas Petersen versus Don’Tale Mayes—a fight that screams “potential trainwreck!” but satisfies the matchmakers` preference for putting big men in the cage—might seem more fitting.

Regardless, these rising talents have the opportunity to silence critics with a performance worthy of Fight of the Night, which is likely what the UFC is hoping for. Smotherman possesses solid striking skills, and while his overall game needs refinement, his exciting boxing style should help him remain a fixture at 135 pounds for the next few years. Sidey is also inclined to use his grappling defensively and will likely be content to stand and trade with Smotherman.

Smotherman has struggled with consistency, but I see significant potential in him, and I believe the best version of him can win a standup battle. I am picking him to pull off a minor upset.

Pick: Smotherman

Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones

While I suggested Smotherman and Sidey could steal the show, let`s be realistic: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones is the clear front-runner for Fight of the Night.

Stephens, a native of Des Moines, couldn`t pass up the chance to fight in his hometown despite his successful run in bare-knuckle boxing. Uncle Dana (Dana White) did him a favor by booking him a prime spot on the card. He also provided him with a willing dance partner in Mason Jones, who is also making a UFC comeback after an entertaining 4-0 stint with Cage Warriors.

If your lasting impression of Jones` initial UFC run is his explosive debut against Mike Davis, you`ll be pleased to know his approach hasn`t changed. While he possesses plenty of technical skill, at heart, Jones is a fighter who wants to engage in a brawl. It`s virtually guaranteed he will meet Stephens in the center and trade heavy shots.

I would love to see this fight go the distance, as both men would batter each other for three full rounds. However, I actually favor Stephens to overcome the odds here with a classic knockout. That Iowa atmosphere might just reinvigorate “Lil` Heathen” and propel him to victory in what could potentially be his final appearance in the UFC.

Pick: Stephens

Preliminary Card Predictions

Predicted winners for the preliminary bouts:

• Yana Santos (12) def. Miesha Tate
• Azamat Bekoev def. Ryan Loder
• Marina Rodriguez (9) def. Gillian Robertson (14)
• Gaston Bolanos def. Quang Le
• Thomas Petersen def. Don’Tale Mayes
• Ivana Petrovic def. Juliana Miller