Ian Machado Garry, who has long targeted the top of the welterweight division, now faces the challenge of defending his standing against a rapidly rising contender.
Carlos Prates is on an impressive streak, with four consecutive wins, all by knockout, and has earned five straight performance bonuses. He aims to extend these runs in the UFC Kansas City main event on Saturday against Garry. This bout represents a significant step up for Prates, following highlight-reel finishes of experienced fighters like Neil Magny and Li Jingliang.
The current buzz in the division centers on champion Belal Muhammad defending against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 and the potential move up by lightweight champion Islam Makhachev if Della Maddalena wins. This dynamic landscape includes other strong contenders such as Sean Brady, the injured Shavkat Rakhmonov, and the winner of the recently announced Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley fight in Atlanta.
One certainty is that whoever delivers an impressive performance in Saturday`s headliner will be positioned favorably for a title shot, regardless of how the rest of the division unfolds in the coming months.
The main card also features other notable matchups: Former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith`s anticipated final appearance against Zhang Mingyang, Giga Chikadze defending his place in the featherweight ranks against David Onama, and Michel Pereira looking to bounce back from a loss when he meets Abus Magomedov in a middleweight clash, among others.
Event Details:
What: UFC Kansas City
Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
When: Saturday, April 26. Preliminary bouts are scheduled to begin at 6 PM ET, with the main card starting at 9 PM ET.
Main Event Prediction: Ian Garry vs. Carlos Prates
While perhaps not the flashiest aspect of fighting, Saturday`s main event fundamentally revolves around effective distance control.
Ian Machado Garry sees himself as an elite technical striker, and his performances often back this up, particularly his skill in avoiding damage. This is a critical factor when facing Carlos Prates, whose knockout power is, to put it technically, “insane.” Prates possesses one of the most dangerous left hands seen recently, and it won`t take many clean shots to potentially put Garry down.
Therefore, it`s crucial for Garry to mix his techniques and spend minimal time exchanging strikes at close range with Prates. Prates is dangerous not only from a distance but also excels at slipping punches to set up his own powerful blows. While Garry is capable of winning a striking battle, standing and trading for extended periods is exceptionally risky.
Garry should look to incorporate his grappling whenever openings present themselves. This is a five-round fight, and Garry likely holds the cardio advantage, having gone the full 25 minutes twice in his career, a distance Prates has never reached.
In a potential war of attrition, assuming Garry navigates the early danger, he is expected to wear Prates down and secure a submission victory in the fourth round.
Pick: Garry
Other Main Card Predictions
Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang
Anthony Smith, whatever comes next in his career, deserves immense respect.
Never projected as a blue-chip prospect or consistent world-beater, Smith nevertheless carved out an impressive career as a UFC light heavyweight contender. He reached the pinnacle by fighting for the title and famously came close to a disqualification win against Jon Jones due to a foul. Smith built significant professional experience before solidifying his place in the UFC, beginning his impactful run nearly a decade ago after transitioning from Strikeforce.
Regardless of the outcome, Smith is exiting the sport on his own terms, which is commendable. The prediction leans towards the younger, less battle-tested Zhang Mingyang. However, a Smith victory wouldn`t be shocking, as Zhang was recently facing lower-level competition, and this step up could prove too much for the 26-year-old. Ultimately, Zhang`s raw talent is anticipated to be the deciding factor, potentially leading to a first-round knockout.
Pick: Zhang
Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama
Perhaps the main question surrounding this matchup is whether Giga Chikadze still warrants his ranking.
It has been some time since Chikadze delivered a performance truly indicative of a top-15 fighter (his knockout of Edson Barboza being a notable highlight from August 2021). However, his only losses in the UFC are to high-level contenders Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar, which carries no shame. Few other featherweights have definitively broken through the densely packed middle tier to usurp his position.
Nonetheless, his current standing will be thoroughly tested against the dangerous David Onama. Onama is still evolving as a fighter but shows promise as a quick athlete with improving boxing skills and solid takedown defense. Overcoming Chikadze`s more refined striking will be a challenge. Fortunately for Onama, he has a high output and possesses skills that can cause significant problems for Chikadze.
Though predicting Onama to win by decision, the fight is expected to be a very competitive contest.
Pick: Onama
Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
Michel Pereira`s loss to Anthony Hernandez provided insights into his limitations, particularly his cardio, which has never been his strongest attribute. This fight suggested that Pereira might not be ideally suited for prolonged, high-pace grappling exchanges.
This potential cardio weakness could be exploited by Abus Magomedov, who is comfortable pushing a fight to the distance. Magomedov does have defensive vulnerabilities that Pereira could capitalize on, meaning Magomedov will need a disciplined and conservative approach to avoid becoming another highlight-reel victim.
Stylistically, Magomedov appears to be a favorable matchup for Pereira – he`s not known for overwhelming pressure, is hittable, and potentially slower in stand-up exchanges. Expecting a classic Pereira performance here, securing the win and keeping his long-shot title aspirations alive.
Pick: Pereira
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
This clash between seasoned welterweights has all the hallmarks of a close, potentially split decision.
There is little separating Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby. Both are veterans who have seen significant octagon time and represent the mold of the well-rounded modern MMA fighter. They are capable strikers, wrestlers, and grapplers, and possess solid cardio. While this makes for excellent matchmaking, don`t necessarily expect fireworks, as their similar skill sets may lead to them neutralizing each other`s strengths, making it difficult for either fighter to consistently pull ahead on the scorecards.
Brown`s creativity and physical size advantages might give him just enough of an edge, even as Dalby makes the fight uncomfortable. Look for Brown to be slightly ahead across three rounds, landing enough significant strikes to sway a couple of judges and get back to his winning ways.
Pick: Brown
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz
The main card opener has the potential to end early, either through Ikram Aliskerov`s knockout power or Andre Muniz`s impressive grappling game. However, there`s also a possibility this fight could become a tactical, less explosive middleweight affair.
Picture a scenario where Aliskerov is cautious, fearing the takedown, while Muniz is hesitant to engage fully due to Aliskerov`s knockout threat, resulting in feints and level changes without committed action. This defensive stalemate is a distinct possibility.
Putting that potential scenario aside, the prediction favors Aliskerov utilizing his striking effectively against Muniz. Aliskerov moves remarkably well for a middleweight and generates powerful strikes quickly. A significant factor is that Muniz is returning after over 500 days out of action and recently turned 35, circumstances that may exacerbate any prior athletic disadvantages.
Prediction: Aliskerov wins by first-round knockout.
Pick: Aliskerov
Preliminary Card Picks
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick
Evan Elder def. Gauge Young
Chris Gutierrez def. John Castaneda
Da’Mon Blackshear def. Alatengheili
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Cameron Saaiman
Jaqueline Amorim def. Polyana Viana
Timmy Cuamba def. Roberto Romero
Joselyne Edwards def. Chelsea Chandler
Marcus Blakely 
Wesley Dunham