UFC London: Edwards vs Brady – Who Will Win?

The UFC is back at London’s O2 Arena after a year-long absence, presenting UFC London, headlined by a compelling welterweight clash between Leon Edwards and Sean Brady. This marks Edwards’s return to the octagon since losing his title, and he’s eager to make a statement, aiming for a trilogy fight with his rival.

Can Edwards regain his winning momentum, or is Brady poised to assert his own claim for a title shot? And what about the rest of the fights on the card? Let’s explore some promising bets for this event.

Leon Edwards (+130)

It’s somewhat surprising to see former champion Edwards as the underdog, yet the stylistic matchup justifies this. Brady is a top-tier grappler in the welterweight division, and Muhammad previously exploited Edwards’s weaknesses with takedowns and ground control. The question is, can Brady replicate that success?

I have reservations. While Edwards’s excuses for his lackluster performance against Muhammad might be questionable, his historical defensive wrestling is superior to what he displayed in that fight. Should Brady immediately take Edwards down, this bet could backfire. However, I anticipate Edwards will be more successful in keeping the fight standing, significantly disadvantaging Brady in striking exchanges.

Kevin Holland (+104)

My analysis here mirrors my thoughts on the main event.

Holland is set to face Gunnar Nelson, a grappling expert, and enters as the underdog. The reasoning is clear: Holland has historically struggled against grapplers. However, these struggles were primarily at middleweight. Now back at welterweight, a more suitable weight class, Holland is better positioned. Furthermore, Nelson is aging and has been inactive for two years. I believe Holland can maintain distance and outbox Nelson in this fight.

Marcin Tybura (+112)

Tybura is matched against Mick Parkin in a preliminary heavyweight bout, and the betting odds seem off. Parkin is undefeated and trains with Tom Aspinall, but this doesn’t automatically equate to high-level skill. He has yet to face an opponent with significant recognition. While Tybura isn’t a world champion, he has consistently proven himself as a top 10 heavyweight. Parkin might have a breakout performance, but until proven otherwise, the expectation is that Tybura will maintain his position, making him a valuable underdog bet.

Carlos Ulberg by Points (+160)

Ulberg is heavily favored, and understandably so. He is on an impressive winning streak, and Jan Blachowicz is a questionable opponent in this context. Blachowicz is 42 and recovering from a serious shoulder injury that kept him sidelined for almost two years. Shoulder injuries at 40+ are typically challenging to overcome. I am quite confident in Ulberg’s victory on Saturday.

Nevertheless, Blachowicz deserves respect. He is an unlikely UFC champion and has consistently proven his toughness against any opponent (ask Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev). I expect him to make Ulberg work hard for the win, suggesting value in a decision victory for Ulberg.

Alexia Thainara by Submission (+430)

This is a riskier bet, but Thainara debuts in the UFC against Molly McCann on the main card and has a good opportunity to impress. While still developing, Thainara is a promising prospect and a strong grappler. This skillset aligns well against McCann, who often struggles against superior grapplers. The odds are generous, making it a worthwhile gamble given the stylistic matchup.

Will this parlay be successful? Unlikely. But as Bunk Moreland famously said, “a man must have a code.” My code? Betting the Gimmick Parlay every time, especially when it boasts a perfect success rate so far.

I’m referring to the fact that two fighters named Chris Duncan are competing on Saturday. Lightweight Chris Duncan (+310) faces Jordan Vucenic on the main card, while Christian Leroy Duncan (-560) competes against Andrey Pulyaev in the prelims. Combining them into a parlay is almost mandatory.

Adding to the intrigue, this is the second instance of the Chris Duncan Parlay being available. Both Duncans fought at UFC 286 in 2023, an event also held at the O2 Arena and headlined by Leon Edwards.

Essentially, this parlay is as close to a sure thing as it gets.

Parlay these two bets together for +383 odds.

By now, you should probably be betting against my picks weekly. My winning streak is nonexistent this year. Hoping for a turnaround this week might be optimistic given past results. Nevertheless, onward we go.

Enjoy the fights, and good luck!