Brandon Moreno is determined to reclaim his position and earn another shot at the UFC flyweight title.
Having previously held the division`s top spot twice, Moreno is a prime target for contenders, including Steve Erceg, who will challenge him in the main event at UFC Mexico this Saturday. Moreno remains a top-tier flyweight, consistently ranked among the best, though recent fights haven`t swung in his favor.
He narrowly lost a split decision to Alexandre Pantoja, ending his second title reign in a fight that could have gone either way. Following that, another split decision loss to Brandon Royval temporarily derailed his hopes for a Pantoja rematch. Despite a subsequent victory over Amir Albazi, it was a bout where Moreno had more to risk than gain.
Now, Moreno faces Erceg, a former title challenger himself, who is equally motivated to get back into championship contention. Erceg is seeking redemption after a knockout loss to Kai Kara-France, potentially entering this fight with even greater urgency and hunger than Moreno.
Flyweight clashes are known for their fast-paced action, and this Saturday`s main event carries extra significance, amplified by the passionate Mexican crowd eager to support Moreno`s quest for victory.
Moreno`s fighting style is characterized by relentless pressure, utilizing his exceptional speed and technique, a strategy he`s expected to employ against Erceg with the backing of the home crowd. Steve Erceg is anticipated to counter with technical boxing skills and agile footwork to evade danger.
Erceg`s grappling abilities could also play a role, and exchanges between the two are likely to result in dynamic scrambles. Moreno`s proven ability to avoid being controlled on the ground gives him an edge in these situations. This fight has the potential to become a battle of endurance as it progresses.
Ultimately, Moreno is favored to win, potentially securing a finish by catching Erceg on his feet and following up with ground strikes in the later rounds, possibly in the third or fourth.
Pick: Moreno
Veteran Drew Dober, in his 25th UFC appearance, has established himself as an exciting fighter consistently on the cusp of the lightweight top 15. The question is whether it`s time for a new generation of lightweight talent to emerge.
Manuel Torres could be that next fan-favorite fighter. Torres uses his long reach effectively, attacking from diverse angles with sharp precision. He is known for capitalizing swiftly on openings when he senses an advantage.
This matchup promises knockout opportunities for both fighters. Dober, despite some technical weaknesses, possesses significant power, a potential equalizer. If he connects with Torres`s chin, the fight could change instantly. It may come down to who lands the decisive blow first.
Favoring the younger and fresher Torres, he is predicted to outstrike Dober. While Dober may pose an early threat, Torres is expected to find his rhythm and land a precise strike, leading to a finish.
Pick: Torres
Kelvin Gastelum is committed to the middleweight division, which is positive news for fans. His next challenge is against the dangerous finisher Joe Pyfer.
Assessing Pyfer`s true potential is still ongoing. His only UFC loss is against experienced Jack Hermansson, which is not a setback. He has demonstrated he is above the middle tier of middleweights and has another opportunity to prove he`s a future contender.
Pyfer holds advantages in size and athleticism. He might utilize wrestling to control Gastelum on the ground, potentially leading to a submission as Gastelum`s resistance weakens. While Gastelum is a capable wrestler, his takedown defense has shown vulnerabilities.
However, engaging in a striking battle with Gastelum could be risky for Pyfer. Gastelum has a durable chin, even after sixteen years as a professional fighter. Pyfer might also tire quickly if he tries to overpower Gastelum, especially considering the altitude of Mexico City, which could expose any suspect cardio.
Gastelum`s strategy should be to extend the fight, pushing Pyfer into deep waters and exploiting his conditioning as the fight progresses into Round 3. If Pyfer isn`t prepared for this scenario, he could face a significant challenge.
Gastelum is favored to win by decision.
Pick: Gastelum
The MMA world is witnessing the emergence of a new generation, led by the now 20-year-old Raul Rosas Jr.
Rosas Jr., a prodigy, is transitioning into adulthood, now of legal drinking age in some places but certainly mature enough to continue his successful MMA career. He has an impressive record of nine wins in his first ten fights, including his last three. His next opponent is Vince Morales, a seasoned veteran known for his resilience.
This matchup is expected to favor the still-developing Rosas. With respect to Morales`s toughness, this fight is predicted to go as planned for Rosas. Rosas`s speed, athleticism, and wrestling skills are typically problematic for fighters like Morales. While Morales has the capabilities to challenge Rosas, Rosas is expected to overcome and wear down Morales.
A late finish is possible, but Rosas is more likely to secure a victory through a three-round decision.
Pick: Rosas Jr.
Saimon Oliveira returns after over two years away from fighting, and his cardio will be crucial as he faces the high-energy David Martinez.
Martinez, a Contender Series signee from 2024, is all about agility and movement. He will likely invite Oliveira to pursue him, using tight defense and sharp counters before unleashing his strikes. His pace is expected to increase as the fight goes on, unless it ends quickly in the first round.
Oliveira needs to utilize a mixed martial arts approach to disrupt Martinez`s rhythm. However, the effectiveness of Oliveira`s wrestling against Martinez`s style is questionable. Martinez maintains distance, making takedown attempts potentially energy-draining for Oliveira if not set up effectively.
Oliveira might fight with a sense of urgency, which could lead to his downfall as Martinez anticipates his strategy early and secures a knockout in the first round.
Pick: Martinez
Ronaldo Rodriguez is a fighter known for his explosive style. He is ready to attack suddenly, mixing unpredictable wrestling bursts with wild stand-up strikes. He can sometimes be slow to start, leading to difficult beginnings in his UFC bouts.
These defensive lapses could be costly against Kevin Borjas, a talented Contender Series fighter who has faced tough competition. Borjas will gladly take the initiative if Rodriguez allows it, using the space to attack with his dynamic striking.
This is a difficult prediction. Rodriguez has the grappling skills to win if he chooses to use them, but he has also absorbed significant strikes in the past and relied on his toughness to recover. This is not a sustainable approach, and Borjas could be the one to teach him a harsh lesson.
Borjas is predicted to win by knockout.
Pick: Borjas
Preliminaries Results
Edgar Chairez def. CJ Vergara
Ateba Gautier def. Jose Daniel Medina
Christian Rodriguez def. Melquizael Costa
Loopy Godinez (11) def. Julia Polastri
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel
Gabriel Miranda def. Jamall Emmers
MarQuel Mederos def. Austin Hubbard
Wesley Dunham