UFC Vegas 106 Predictions

Veteran fighter Gilbert Burns continues his quest, but faces a tough challenge. Four years after his unsuccessful bid for the UFC welterweight title, the 38-year-old has faced setbacks, currently experiencing the first three-fight losing streak of his career. This difficult run is potentially set to extend when he faces undefeated prospect Michael Morales in the main event of UFC Vegas 106 this Saturday.

This bout represents a significant step for Morales. Holding a perfect 17-0 record overall, with 5 wins in the UFC, Morales shows all the signs of a future champion. He has consistently overcome more experienced opponents, with recent victories over Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Max Griffin. A win against Burns would likely propel him into the welterweight top 10 rankings, though underestimating the seasoned “Durinho” would be unwise.

The rest of the main card features several intriguing matchups: Paul Craig is in a must-win situation against Rodolfo Bellato, Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos meet in a lightweight clash, Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev aim for a highlight-reel finish, and rising featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa kick off the televised portion of the event.

Fight Predictions and Analysis

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Let`s be clear: Gilbert Burns absolutely possesses the ability to win this fight. However, he will need many factors to align perfectly to inflict the first professional loss on Michael Morales.

In terms of grappling, Burns` capabilities are well-established. If he can secure takedowns early in the bout, he has the tools to drain Morales` energy and compensate for the size disadvantage. Considering this is a five-round main event, the more control and damage Burns can accumulate in the initial rounds, the better. Morales` endurance over a prolonged fight remains relatively unproven, making a strategy focused on wearing him down crucial for Burns.

Burns still carries significant power in his hands, ensuring he isn`t without options if the fight devolves into a striking battle. Yet, avoiding a stand-up slugfest likely serves his interests best.

Morales exhibits exceptional fundamental technique and intelligent striking. His footwork is impressive, and he masterfully employs feints to set up more dynamic attacks. His natural athleticism allows him to recover quickly from potential mistakes, even defending takedowns effectively. Just when opponents believe they have him on the defensive, Morales demonstrates explosive movements to escape danger and seize control. Once he builds momentum, he becomes incredibly difficult to stop.

While Burns has recently shown he can still compete with elite fighters, a decline is noticeable. He is 13 years older than Morales, and the difference in professional fight experience and accumulated training hours is significant. Had this been the Burns of two or three years ago, the fight would be much closer to a toss-up. Given the current state, Morales is heavily favored for valid reasons.

Prediction: Morales by decision.

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

It`s easy to find yourself rooting for Rodolfo Bellato. The powerful Brazilian`s initial two UFC appearances have been chaotic and action-packed. At times, he displays top-15 potential, but sustaining that belief is challenging given the amount of damage he often absorbs. Perhaps he will adopt a more disciplined approach against Paul Craig.

Craig is fully aware of the high stakes involved in this fight. A victory will likely ensure his continued presence in the octagon, while a loss could signal the end of his UFC tenure.

His recent performance against Bo Nickal, which was rather uninspired, did him no favors – a result that appears even less favorable considering Nickal`s subsequent difficulties. Craig has also frequently been a slow starter throughout his career, and allowing Bellato to dictate the pace from the outset would be detrimental.

Bellato is expected to come out with his usual intensity, and a signature comeback win, once a specialty for Craig, seems unlikely here. I anticipate a powerful knockout victory for “Trator.”

Prediction: Bellato by knockout.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Mairon Santos certainly isn`t seeking an easy path after winning The Ultimate Fighter 32. “The Legend” (yes, that nickname is back!) is making a quick turnaround following his March fight and is moving up a weight class to face Sodiq Yusuff, an opponent with considerably more UFC experience. This move might be a form of self-imposed challenge after a controversial decision win against Francis Marshall, but he must be cautious not to stifle his evident potential.

Yusuff`s transition to the 155-pound lightweight division appears to be permanent, which raises further concerns for Santos, suggesting Yusuff has likely bulked up appropriately for this contest. Yusuff has always possessed strong striking skills, even if finishes have been elusive. Eliminating a difficult weight cut could allow his game to flourish. With increased energy, Yusuff might feel more comfortable unleashing his hands early and with less restraint.

While I might be cautiously underestimating Santos, I have seen Yusuff pose significant problems for too many capable fighters to pick against him in this instance. Yes, this means I`m not putting my faith in a recent TUF winner this time.

Prediction: Yusuff by decision.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

This fight has the potential for fireworks. You don`t schedule Dustin Stoltzfus or Nursulton Ruziboev unless you expect the fight to conclude before the final bell. Both fighters have decision wins on their records, but tonight, they are likely to meet in the center and trade heavy blows.

That scenario favors Stoltzfus, who secured a surprising knockout against Marc-Andre Barriault in November when Barriault unwisely chose to exchange punches with him against the cage, leading to a first-round finish for Stoltzfus.

Given Ruziboev`s tendency to attack directly, there will be opportunities for Stoltzfus to potentially land a fight-ending shot. However, Ruziboev`s superior accuracy and aggression are expected to prevail. He should connect with impactful strikes on the feet before finishing the fight with ground-and-pound or a submission once the action hits the canvas.

Prediction: Ruziboev by stoppage (TKO or Submission).

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

This is excellent matchmaking, pairing two veteran featherweights who are currently riding quiet win streaks.

Julian Erosa is the more recognizable fighter to many fans, having competed consistently for 15 years and establishing a reputation as a durable and tricky opponent. Whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground, the lanky and adaptable Erosa presents difficulties for any opponent.

Melquizael Costa has been actively trying to make up for lost time since his UFC debut in 2023. He is currently on a three-fight winning streak and aims to extend it to four victories within an 11-month span by overcoming Erosa.

Costa`s performances are rarely aesthetically perfect, but his notable ability to recover and battle back from adversity is one of his strongest traits. The same cannot always be said for Erosa, who has occasionally struggled in the opening round when he is not performing at his best. Conversely, Erosa also boasts a significant number of first-round finishes.

I lean towards Erosa winning this fight. I anticipate the bout extending beyond the initial five minutes, and I believe Erosa`s higher level of experience will carry him to victory. “Juicy J” should take the decision after three competitive rounds.

Prediction: Erosa by decision.