Islam Makhachev, the UFC lightweight champion, is waiting to find out who he will fight next. There are four possible fighters who all want a chance to challenge him.
Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Ilia Topuria, who is the featherweight champion, have all said they should get the title shot. However, the UFC hasn`t decided yet. While any of them could be argued for, UFC veteran Matt Brown thinks one fighter stands out because of the excitement and importance of the fight.
“I’d pick Ilia,” Brown said on the podcast The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Islam might not want this fight, and he might try to avoid it, which is understandable. But I don’t think any of the other fighters have clearly proven they deserve it more. That’s why there are four names in the mix.”
“No one has really impressed so much that it’s obvious they should get the fight. I think they should give Ilia the opportunity and see what happens. If he wins, Ilia could become an even bigger star.”
Makhachev’s hesitation about fighting Topuria is because he previously fought Alexander Volkanovski, another featherweight champion, and people criticized him for beating smaller fighters. Makhachev has suggested Topuria should first prove himself at lightweight before getting an immediate title shot.
Brown understands Makhachev’s concerns about fighting another featherweight moving up to 155 pounds. However, he thinks the UFC sees a big money fight in Topuria, and that’s hard to ignore.
Brown also points out that the other contenders will still be around for title fights later. But if Topuria loses to someone else now, the interest in a fight between him and Makhachev would disappear.
“Those other guys will still be there,” Brown said about Tsarukyan, Oliveira, and Gaethje. “They can still get title fights later. In the meantime, give Ilia the chance to become – maybe not the biggest star in the sport – but close to it if he beats Islam. If he beats Volkanovski, Holloway, and Islam, he’d be in the conversation for greatest of all time.”
Topuria seems to have momentum, especially after Tsarukyan had to withdraw from a fight against Makhachev in January due to a back injury. UFC CEO Dana White told Tsarukyan he needs to win another fight before getting a title shot again.
Oliveira recently had a strong win against Michael Chandler, but he has lost to both Tsarukyan and Makhachev before.
Gaethje called for a title shot after defeating Rafael Fiziev, but this win just put him back on track after a knockout loss to Max Holloway a year earlier.
Brown knows the other fighters might be frustrated if Topuria gets a title shot before them. He suggests Oliveira and Gaethje should stay active and fight, while Tsarukyan should wait for his chance, possibly as a backup for the title fight.
“If I were the UFC, I’d say Arman doesn’t need to fight right away,” Brown said. “Arman, you’re next. You fight the winner of Ilia and Islam. Putting Ilia and Islam together is smart because if Islam wins, it doesn’t hurt his reputation, but if Ilia wins, it creates a huge star and champion.”
“Arman should just wait, and if someone gets injured, he can step in. I know Arman has been out for a while, but he should heal his back and wait for his opportunity. He might have to wait longer than he wants, but that’s just how it is sometimes.”
Besides star power, Brown also thinks Topuria’s fighting style could be more challenging for Makhachev than Tsarukyan, Oliveira, or Gaethje.
Even though Topuria is moving up in weight, he has knockout power, which gives him a chance to defeat Makhachev. Brown isn’t sure the other contenders have the same kind of threat.
“Arman is a wrestler, so he probably won’t beat Islam in wrestling,” Brown explained. “I don’t think his striking is good enough to beat Islam in striking either. Ilia will likely be outmatched in wrestling, but he has the striking and knockout power to win if Islam makes a mistake or gets too confident in his striking. There’s a clear path to victory for Ilia, while Arman is almost like a weaker version of Islam.”
“We assume they would wrestle a lot, and it’s less likely Arman would beat Islam with wrestling than Ilia beating Islam with striking. However, it’s also more likely Islam could take down Ilia and dominate him on the ground. It’s a bit of a tough call.”
Ultimately, Brown argues that Topuria’s star power and knockout ability make him the best choice for the next title fight.
“Ilia has a kind of ‘X factor’ that Arman doesn’t,” Brown said. “That’s why I think he has a better chance.”
Wesley Dunham